Out of curiosity, does anyone think this will escalate and involve other countries?
I'm interested in what Motown, Vitamin, ODub etc. have to say about this.
At this point I'd say the ball is in Israels court.
The backlash from the civilian deaths seems woken them up and tightened the loose leash they had for most of last week. Today Israel sent out the message that Lebanese civilians should evacuate the area & they also allowed humanitarian aid to come in. They are most likely going to stay in safety mode for at least a few days and try to win public favor again.
Iran and Syria know what they face if they jump in and they ain't trying to get that, if anything I can see them wanting to be part of the cease fire negotiations (if they ever happen)
Out of curiosity, does anyone think this will escalate and involve other countries?
Right now, probably not. I think the initiative is with the Israelis and Hezbollah is just sitting back, probably in bunkers, waiting to see what happens. I can't see Syria or Iran stepping in as of now. Israel would have to instigate that.
Would you say this situation has been just as much a display of power as the reason they bombed Lebanon in the first place? The more I take in, the more I'm seeing this as a message to other countries/factions who are anti-Israel. Ie. "Don't fuck with us."
Yes, it's a big fucking message to Hezbollah not to mess with Israel right now. It's a message to the Lebanese government that they need to move into the South and disarm Hezbollah. (I'm still not expecting that to happen, but who knows. I couldn't see Hezbollah giving up their guns without a fight and the country just got out of a civil war, not to mention Shiites are the largest single group in the country, perhaps 40-50%, and after Israel's actions, they'd generally be none to happy about someone taking away their goodies.) Of course, it's also a message to Syria and Iran. I don't think anyone expected Israel to go off so much, so the message is probably heard loud and clear.
Would you say this situation has been just as much a display of power as the reason they bombed Lebanon in the first place? The more I take in, the more I'm seeing this as a message to other countries/factions who are anti-Israel. Ie. "Don't fuck with us."
that's the essence of deterrence. all Israeli actions need to be seen in this context. a country of Israel's size that is so massively outnumbered relies on deterrence as a key pillar of their military strategy.
Call me batshit crazy but how is this going to push the Lebanese to "take action" against Hezbollah when 1) half a million of their citizenry is displaced and fleeing and 2) Israel is bombing Lebanese army bases?
Are the Lebanese really going to be bombed into kick-starting a civil war with Hezbollah simply to get Israel off their backs? That's a really bizarre chain of logic to me. If anything, while this situation very well is increasing resentment towards Hezbollah, Israel is probably taking even more heat. Somehow, I doubt the average Lebanese could give a fuck about what Alan Dershowitz has to say about this right now in terms of who's culpable for what. Unless those Israeli jets are flying a crescent and star vs. the Star of David, I really doubt the memory and resentment of these days will carry into some kind of populist uprising against Hezbollah.
You guys dont think Iran had something to do with funding this shit? I dunno, mabye i just get more news from conspiracy dudes than is probably healthy, but i wouldnt put it past em.
It did serve as a nice distraction from their nuclear aspirations which were previously set to be the big talk of the G8 summit.
You guys dont think Iran had something to do with funding this shit? I dunno, mabye i just get more news from conspiracy dudes than is probably healthy, but i wouldnt put it past em.
It did serve as a nice distraction from their nuclear aspirations which were previously set to be the big talk of the G8 summit.
I think the CW right now is that the only reason Hezbollah decided to get into this shit was because either or both Iran and Syria urged them too. Joel's posted about this extensively already but basically, for Hezbollah, this might have been a calculated power grab to elevate their status in the Arab world and help unite Shia Muslims across the region. I heard one Mideast scholar argue that if anyone is benefitting from this right now, it's Syria because they're seen as Hezbollah's puppet masters and therefore, anyone trying to win peace or even cease fire has to go through Damascus first and kiss the ring, so to say. This is something that the U.S. loathes to contemplate having to do and probably will wait until the situation is even worse than it is now.
But B - I doubt this is meant to be a diversion from Iran's nuclear missile program: no one is going to forget the relevance that such a possiblity holds.
You guys dont think Iran had something to do with funding this shit? I dunno, mabye i just get more news from conspiracy dudes than is probably healthy, but i wouldnt put it past em.
It did serve as a nice distraction from their nuclear aspirations which were previously set to be the big talk of the G8 summit.
dude, no duh. if by "funding this shit" you mean they funded and encouraged Hezbollah to set schitt off last week, that's exactly what happened.
But B - I doubt this is meant to be a diversion from Iran's nuclear missile program: no one is going to forget the relevance that such a possiblity holds.
but this is Israel we are talking about. NO ISSUE IS MORE IMPORTANT than Israel to the knownots in the UN. they have proven themselves time and again to be more than eager to drop whatever humanitarian crisis is ongoing in the world to censure Israel, or otherwise "deal with" an Israel-related crisis. I'm not kidding, O, I wouldn't be surprised if the Iran thing took a back burner for a minute. or if the Iranians just bought more time and continued building their little bomb. I was encouraged for a minute there by the European action on this front but at the end of the day it's Israel's problem.
Call me batshit crazy but how is this going to push the Lebanese to "take action" against Hezbollah when 1) half a million of their citizenry is displaced and fleeing and 2) Israel is bombing Lebanese army bases?
Are the Lebanese really going to be bombed into kick-starting a civil war with Hezbollah simply to get Israel off their backs? That's a really bizarre chain of logic to me. If anything, while this situation very well is increasing resentment towards Hezbollah, Israel is probably taking even more heat. Somehow, I doubt the average Lebanese could give a fuck about what Alan Dershowitz has to say about this right now in terms of who's culpable for what. Unless those Israeli jets are flying a crescent and star vs. the Star of David, I really doubt the memory and resentment of these days will carry into some kind of populist uprising against Hezbollah.
yeah I don't see that happening either. Israel had a nice little window of opportunity there where a) Hezbollah was clearly in the wrong and b) the Euros and even some Arab folls were condemning Hezbollah. Seems Israel may have squandered that window with all the civilian casualties.
but my comment on deterrence still holds true generally. Israel needs to hit back hard when things like this happen or else they're seen as weak. realpolitik is a bitch. I'm not being flip - it's the g*ddamn truth that the failure to hit back would have invited another attack.
But here is the thing. It's also cruel. Lebanon would be spared if Israel bombed five military targets in Iran and Syria. This would have spared more lives, sent a stronger message to the source and also violated international law. In this case the clearer violation of international law would be the most moral option.
It was all going so well until you wrote that last bit.
Call me batshit crazy but how is this going to push the Lebanese to "take action" against Hezbollah when 1) half a million of their citizenry is displaced and fleeing and 2) Israel is bombing Lebanese army bases?
Are the Lebanese really going to be bombed into kick-starting a civil war with Hezbollah simply to get Israel off their backs? That's a really bizarre chain of logic to me. If anything, while this situation very well is increasing resentment towards Hezbollah, Israel is probably taking even more heat. Somehow, I doubt the average Lebanese could give a fuck about what Alan Dershowitz has to say about this right now in terms of who's culpable for what. Unless those Israeli jets are flying a crescent and star vs. the Star of David, I really doubt the memory and resentment of these days will carry into some kind of populist uprising against Hezbollah.
yeah I don't see that happening either. Israel had a nice little window of opportunity there where a) Hezbollah was clearly in the wrong and b) the Euros and even some Arab folls were condemning Hezbollah. Seems Israel may have squandered that window with all the civilian casualties.
but my comment on deterrence still holds true generally. Israel needs to hit back hard when things like this happen or else they're seen as weak. realpolitik is a bitch. I'm not being flip - it's the g*ddamn truth that the failure to hit back would have invited another attack.
Israel's problem is holding back, not applying force. They've done that pretty convincingly over the years.
This is the logic of war. The objective to dismantle, damage or dent Hezbollah as an organization is secondary to sanctioning a nation for the actions of a band of terrorists intent on destroying it.
That's the only point I was trying to make: there's a logic to Israel's actions. The merits of the reasoning should be argued, but to imply, as some have, that there's a room of indifferent generals telling the IAF to bomb whatever looks pretty from the air is offensive. Contrary to the belief of many, Israel is not a country of monsters who terrorise people for laughs. Real people are agonising over these decisions.
Great graphic! Maybe it's the same one used back in the day to illustrate global support for resolution 3379, another shining example of the UN's enlightened perspective on the Middle East? Or maybe it's a little more recent, perhaps from 2001 when the US insisted the gist of 3379 be ommitted from the final communique of the United Nations Conferene of Racism despite overwhelming international support. (FYI: 3379=Zionism is Racism)
This is the logic of war. The objective to dismantle, damage or dent Hezbollah as an organization is secondary to sanctioning a nation for the actions of a band of terrorists intent on destroying it.
That's the only point I was trying to make: there's a logic to Israel's actions. The merits of the reasoning should be argued, but to imply, as some have, that there's a room of indifferent generals telling the IAF to bomb whatever looks pretty from the air is offensive. Contrary to the belief of many, Israel is not a country of monsters who terrorise people for laughs. Real people are agonising over these decisions.
I think Israel might be waiting, like the rest of the world, for the US to get involved in negotating peace. Really, can you expect Israel to cease fire before Hezbolah does?!? Israeli bombs have obviously done more damage, but remember how this began. Perhaps it was strategic for Israel to use the captured soldiers as a means to wage war. If that is the case, again, can you blame them? Hamas on one side, Hizbolah on the other. Israel has to take the shit that Hamas gives them because of how the world looks at their situation with the Palestinians. Hizbolah is another story, noone is going to defend them. Israel flexing its muscle, while horrible because of the civilian deaths, could absolutely result in less attacks in the future. Hizbolah's funding and support from Syria could certainly diminish after this war. WHich leads me to my initial point/response, i think Israel desperately needs the US to come in and, at the least, put pressure on Syria.
If there is a civil war in Lebanon it won't be "to get Israel off their backs", it will be along pro-Syrian and anti Syrian lines. Hizbollah would be reacted against as a Syrian agent that brought war upon Lebanon out of Syria's interests, with no regard for the Lebanese.
For example my girl is Lebanese, a Druze, and she has a much deeper resentment towards the Syrians than she does the Isarelis. The Prime Minister of Lebanon is not supporting Hesbollah (Syria), the president of Lebanon is. The Syrians could very well be paying or theatening him to gain his suport. Before Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese PM who was was killed by Syria for too much loose Lebanese independence talk was assasinated, he had a talk with Assad where Assad reportedly threatened his life, telling him he'd "break Lebanon over his head" if he didn't get in line. Hariri left with a nosebleed cause he was so scared, the former Syrian vice pres came out with this info cause he thought it just awful. it scared him to death as well.
So there's fissures throughout Lebanese society- Shia and Sunni have problems w/ each other, the Druze are divided amongst themselves, Christians are sick of living w/ everybody else's shit. and then each of these groups has an internal pro/anti Syrian conflict.
So in a sense it's not only Israel, but also Syria through Hesbollah that would have interests at stake in a civil war in Lebanon.
In this sense, Vitamin is absolutely right- the clearer violation of international law (bombing Syria) would have been more of a direct response to an essentially Syrian action. Now, God knows what wouldve happened if they did..but it would be more direct than devastating Lebanon as the Israelis have.
Not sure if this has posted yet but the below cite is hosting photos of the carnage. Not sure how long the cite will be up and I recommend viewing them for some real world sense of what is going in in Lebanon and Isreal:
Juan Cole is frazzled liar, a credulous character assassin. He routinely peddles nonsense about neoconservatives being Israeli agents, he is a modern McCarthy. He has asserted that Dan Senor ordered a three star american general to arrest muqtada al sadr; Iran had freer elections in 2000 than Iraq in 2004; that Israel is a terrorist state no different than Syria. I read him to know what the nutroots will believe, which increasingly is pretty much anything. Something a fabricator like Cole clearly counts as an advantage.
This image requires context. It was taken in Kiryat Shmona, where numerous rockets have fallen. Allowing children to write messages on artillery shells may seem of questionable taste, but these are kids who's daily life centres around proximity to bomb shelters. To the extent that they have the capacity to understand what they???re doing, they write on those shells with the belief that they will end rocket attacks. Perhaps it???s cathartic.
It may be that those same shells will kill Lebanese children, but those Israeli kids, and I???d wager the same for the artillerymen firing them, aren???t celebrating the murder of innocents No one's dancing the hora over dead Lebanese babies, although, as I've mentioned before, this is what many imply is happening.
Comments
At this point I'd say the ball is in Israels court.
The backlash from the civilian deaths seems woken them up and tightened the loose leash they had for most of last week. Today Israel sent out the message that Lebanese civilians should evacuate the area & they also allowed humanitarian aid to come in. They are most likely going to stay in safety mode for at least a few days and try to win public favor again.
Iran and Syria know what they face if they jump in and they ain't trying to get that, if anything I can see them wanting to be part of the cease fire negotiations (if they ever happen)
Yes, it's a big fucking message to Hezbollah not to mess with Israel right now. It's a message to the Lebanese government that they need to move into the South and disarm Hezbollah. (I'm still not expecting that to happen, but who knows. I couldn't see Hezbollah giving up their guns without a fight and the country just got out of a civil war, not to mention Shiites are the largest single group in the country, perhaps 40-50%, and after Israel's actions, they'd generally be none to happy about someone taking away their goodies.) Of course, it's also a message to Syria and Iran. I don't think anyone expected Israel to go off so much, so the message is probably heard loud and clear.
that's the essence of deterrence. all Israeli actions need to be seen in this context. a country of Israel's size that is so massively outnumbered relies on deterrence as a key pillar of their military strategy.
Worst possible outcome. Witchunts don't work, as they tend to consolidate arguments rather than diffuse them.
Are the Lebanese really going to be bombed into kick-starting a civil war with Hezbollah simply to get Israel off their backs? That's a really bizarre chain of logic to me. If anything, while this situation very well is increasing resentment towards Hezbollah, Israel is probably taking even more heat. Somehow, I doubt the average Lebanese could give a fuck about what Alan Dershowitz has to say about this right now in terms of who's culpable for what. Unless those Israeli jets are flying a crescent and star vs. the Star of David, I really doubt the memory and resentment of these days will carry into some kind of populist uprising against Hezbollah.
It did serve as a nice distraction from their nuclear aspirations which were previously set to be the big talk of the G8 summit.
It fosters and encourages the "Us v. Them" mentality that eshews rationality and diplomacy in favor of a reactionary position.
I think the CW right now is that the only reason Hezbollah decided to get into this shit was because either or both Iran and Syria urged them too. Joel's posted about this extensively already but basically, for Hezbollah, this might have been a calculated power grab to elevate their status in the Arab world and help unite Shia Muslims across the region. I heard one Mideast scholar argue that if anyone is benefitting from this right now, it's Syria because they're seen as Hezbollah's puppet masters and therefore, anyone trying to win peace or even cease fire has to go through Damascus first and kiss the ring, so to say. This is something that the U.S. loathes to contemplate having to do and probably will wait until the situation is even worse than it is now.
But B - I doubt this is meant to be a diversion from Iran's nuclear missile program: no one is going to forget the relevance that such a possiblity holds.
dude, no duh. if by "funding this shit" you mean they funded and encouraged Hezbollah to set schitt off last week, that's exactly what happened.
but this is Israel we are talking about. NO ISSUE IS MORE IMPORTANT than Israel to the knownots in the UN. they have proven themselves time and again to be more than eager to drop whatever humanitarian crisis is ongoing in the world to censure Israel, or otherwise "deal with" an Israel-related crisis. I'm not kidding, O, I wouldn't be surprised if the Iran thing took a back burner for a minute. or if the Iranians just bought more time and continued building their little bomb. I was encouraged for a minute there by the European action on this front but at the end of the day it's Israel's problem.
yeah I don't see that happening either. Israel had a nice little window of opportunity there where a) Hezbollah was clearly in the wrong and b) the Euros and even some Arab folls were condemning Hezbollah. Seems Israel may have squandered that window with all the civilian casualties.
but my comment on deterrence still holds true generally. Israel needs to hit back hard when things like this happen or else they're seen as weak. realpolitik is a bitch. I'm not being flip - it's the g*ddamn truth that the failure to hit back would have invited another attack.
It was all going so well until you wrote that last bit.
Israel's problem is holding back, not applying force. They've done that pretty convincingly over the years.
That's the only point I was trying to make: there's a logic to Israel's actions. The merits of the reasoning should be argued, but to imply, as some have, that there's a room of indifferent generals telling the IAF to bomb whatever looks pretty from the air is offensive. Contrary to the belief of many, Israel is not a country of monsters who terrorise people for laughs. Real people are agonising over these decisions.
And they've blown that to hell. Literally.
That kinda reminds me of what it use to look like for nations who labeled Hezbollah a terrorist group.
I thought Britian condemned Israel's use of force?
I think Israel might be waiting, like the rest of the world, for the US to get involved in negotating peace. Really, can you expect Israel to cease fire before Hezbolah does?!? Israeli bombs have obviously done more damage, but remember how this began. Perhaps it was strategic for Israel to use the captured soldiers as a means to wage war. If that is the case, again, can you blame them? Hamas on one side, Hizbolah on the other. Israel has to take the shit that Hamas gives them because of how the world looks at their situation with the Palestinians. Hizbolah is another story, noone is going to defend them. Israel flexing its muscle, while horrible because of the civilian deaths, could absolutely result in less attacks in the future. Hizbolah's funding and support from Syria could certainly diminish after this war. WHich leads me to my initial point/response, i think Israel desperately needs the US to come in and, at the least, put pressure on Syria.
ODub-
If there is a civil war in Lebanon it won't be "to get Israel off their backs", it will be along pro-Syrian and anti Syrian lines. Hizbollah would be reacted against as a Syrian agent that brought war upon Lebanon out of Syria's interests, with no regard for the Lebanese.
For example my girl is Lebanese, a Druze, and she has a much deeper resentment towards the Syrians than she does the Isarelis. The Prime Minister of Lebanon is not supporting Hesbollah (Syria), the president of Lebanon is. The Syrians could very well be paying or theatening him to gain his suport. Before Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese PM who was was killed by Syria for too much loose Lebanese independence talk was assasinated, he had a talk with Assad where Assad reportedly threatened his life, telling him he'd "break Lebanon over his head" if he didn't get in line. Hariri left with a nosebleed cause he was so scared, the former Syrian vice pres came out with this info cause he thought it just awful. it scared him to death as well.
So there's fissures throughout Lebanese society- Shia and Sunni have problems w/ each other, the Druze are divided amongst themselves, Christians are sick of living w/ everybody else's shit. and then each of these groups has an internal pro/anti Syrian conflict.
So in a sense it's not only Israel, but also Syria through Hesbollah that would have interests at stake in a civil war in Lebanon.
In this sense, Vitamin is absolutely right- the clearer violation of international law (bombing Syria) would have been more of a direct response to an essentially Syrian action. Now, God knows what wouldve happened if they did..but it would be more direct than devastating Lebanon as the Israelis have.
http://fromisraeltolebanon.info/
Here is where I found the link: Professor Cole's cite is an all around excellent source.
http://juancole.com
http://www.bubbleshare.com/album/48388/overview
depressing
It's allllllllllllll NAGL.
Kids should be playing hopscotch or marbles or some shit.
Juan Cole is frazzled liar, a credulous character assassin. He routinely peddles nonsense about neoconservatives being Israeli agents, he is a modern McCarthy. He has asserted that Dan Senor ordered a three star american general to arrest muqtada al sadr; Iran had freer elections in 2000 than Iraq in 2004; that Israel is a terrorist state no different than Syria. I read him to know what the nutroots will believe, which increasingly is pretty much anything. Something a fabricator like Cole clearly counts as an advantage.
i am not saying it's different. it's all very sad. flame feeding flame, hate breeding hate etc.
I totally agree.
This image requires context. It was taken in Kiryat Shmona, where numerous rockets have fallen. Allowing children to write messages on artillery shells may seem of questionable taste, but these are kids who's daily life centres around proximity to bomb shelters. To the extent that they have the capacity to understand what they???re doing, they write on those shells with the belief that they will end rocket attacks. Perhaps it???s cathartic.
It may be that those same shells will kill Lebanese children, but those Israeli kids, and I???d wager the same for the artillerymen firing them, aren???t celebrating the murder of innocents No one's dancing the hora over dead Lebanese babies, although, as I've mentioned before, this is what many imply is happening.