Why I Think Palin Will Win Tonight. (NRR)

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  • she came off like a car salesman.

  • PunditPundit 438 Posts
    as a non american, i'm curious how palin's perceived failure with the english language is any different to how embarrasingly old mate dubya has stumbled his way through the last 8 years. Seriously, literacy and executive command seem to be mutually exclusive. Is she copping all the extra heat cos she is a woman?

  • Hotsauce84Hotsauce84 8,450 Posts
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    b,121as a non american, i'm curious how palin's perceived failure with the english language is any different to how embarrasingly old mate dubya has stumbled his way through the last 8 years. Seriously, literacy and executive command seem to be mutually exclusive. Is she copping all the extra heat cos she is a woman?
    b,121
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121This excellent cartoon was in this morning's Arizona Daily Star:b,121b,121b,121img src="http://media.caglecartoons.com/preview/{5ff3c7e3-3c41-4a64-8de1-c10af10a82c8}.gif"1 b,121b,121b,121It was drawn by our local political cartoonist David Fitzsimmons. My Mom used to work with him BITD and he drew a comic of a Hip Hop Goose for me 'cause my friends used to call me Gooseman in junior high. (My last name is Guzman.) I wonder if it's still at Moms??

  • CosmoCosmo 9,768 Posts
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    b,121as a non american, i'm curious how palin's perceived failure with the english language is any different to how embarrasingly old mate dubya has stumbled his way through the last 8 years. Seriously, literacy and executive command seem to be mutually exclusive. Is she copping all the extra heat cos she is a woman?
    b,121
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121In my opinion I don't think she's copping any more heat than Bush did / does. If there's any emphasis on her it's because she's up and he's a lame duck.

  • buttonbutton 1,475 Posts
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    b,121i'm curious how palin's perceived failure with the english language is any different to how embarrasingly old mate dubya has stumbled his way through
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    font class="post"1 b,121b,121In brief, GW's stumbling is due mostly to him being naturally dopey. I'm sure he'd even fumble words if he were showing you how to clear brush. Palin on the other hand tends to ramble like a high school student giving a classroom speech she didn't bother preparing for until that day in study hall.

  • PunditPundit 438 Posts
    plus dubya is/was quite obviously a puppet extension of his dad's special friend's club so even though he is world class styoopid everyone knew that much more switched on cats were making all the real moves. anyway, thanks for the perspectives...

  • luckluck 4,077 Posts
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121 a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosniaks" target="_blank"1Actually, Biden's correct on that one./a1

  • luckluck 4,077 Posts
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    b,121I really am not sure how this debate is going to go. Having seen some tape of Gov. Palin's debates from AK and after some stumbles in the early ones she found her footing. She didn't have Team McCain prepping her.
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    b,121The Good (for her)
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    b,1211) She can string sentences together and tell a good, folksy story to connect with voters.
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    b,1212) She can do the put down disguised as a complement.
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    b,121The Bad (for her again)
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    b,1211) She does, as one former opponent, speak in generalizations to direct questions on facts, figures, and history.
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    b,1212) She cannot keep her answers short when she doesn't know a subject. She fills the space with mooseshite until her non-point is made.
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121Actually, this ^ turned out to be pretty damn accurate.b,121b,121My take: Gov. Palin came out like gangbusters with her pre-memorized stuff and frankly impressed me, but then noticably lost steam about 20-25 minutes when her crib notes ran out, and then began to unravel. Her transcript will be unbelievable comedy fodder tomorrow; the Governor was inventing answers to questions that hadn't been and never were asked.b,121b,121Senator Biden talked far too much, and got boring 2/3rds of the way through (both did, frankly), but Palin was clearly outclassed. I mean, clearly. The best part for Biden was the hammering of the meme that John McCain and George Bush had the same exact plans, and Sarah Palin didn't even object to the characterization. Hell, she didn't even object to the apparently validated Spain assertation that Obama and Biden tossed out in both debates. Unreal.b,121b,121I thought that McCain came out better in the first debate, but there is no question in my mind that Joe Biden really embarrassed Sarah Palin tonight - especially if you really listened to the non-answers that Palin was giving. Gwen Ifill stayed out of the way, and that was for the best. No reasonable GOP member should have a bone to pick with her or an excuse involving her after this performance.

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    a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosniaks" target="_blank"1Actually, Biden's correct on that one.
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121what can I say the dude is a gentleman AND a scholar.

  • Hotsauce84Hotsauce84 8,450 Posts
    Puff Daddy is an effin' nut...b,121b,121object width="425" height="344"1param name="movie" value=""1/param1param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"1/param1embed src="" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"1/embed1/object1b,121b,121b,121(Apologies if this is late pass material.)

  • b1"We have to fight for our freedoms, also, economic and our national security freedoms. "/b1 b,121b,121b,121I picture her on the floor of the living room with all these different buzz words and phrases printed on 3X5 note cards, and she's just stringing them together like those refridgerator magnets. Only this is going on in her head.

  • luckluck 4,077 Posts
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    a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosniaks" target="_blank"1Actually, Biden's correct on that one.
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    b,121what can I say the dude is a gentleman AND a scholar.
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121My only beef with Biden (other than sometimes losing his audience in his forest-speech) was that he was wrong on one of the strongest points he made tonight - the John McCain voted the same way that Barack Obama did on the "benefits to troops" proposal. In fact, John McCain didn't vote at all on that bill, just like the man didn't vote for anything (i.e. his job) in between mid-April and the Senatorial bailout today.

  • discos_almadiscos_alma discos_alma 2,164 Posts
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    b1"We have to fight for our freedoms, also, economic and our national security freedoms. "/b1 b,121b,121b,121I picture her on the floor of the living room with all these different buzz words and phrases printed on 3X5 note cards, and she's just stringing them together like those refridgerator magnets. Only this is going on in her head. b,121b,121h,121
    font class="post"1b,121b,121So true


  • luckluck 4,077 Posts
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    b1"We have to fight for our freedoms, also, economic and our national security freedoms. "/b1 b,121b,121b,121I picture her on the floor of the living room with all these different buzz words and phrases printed on 3X5 note cards, and she's just stringing them together like those refridgerator magnets. Only this is going on in her head. b,121b,121h,121
    font class="post"1b,121b,121Seriously: what the woman actually said was far worse (in its insubstantiality) then how she said it. I've been more than fair in my characterizations of her, and I've never said anything to this effect about her yet, but she sincerely reminded me of George W. Bush tonight with her non-answers. The patterns, the words, everything. She even threw in the Bush wink, for god's sake.

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    b1"We have to fight for our freedoms, also, economic and our national security freedoms. "/b1 b,121b,121b,121I picture her on the floor of the living room with all these different buzz words and phrases printed on 3X5 note cards, and she's just stringing them together like those refridgerator magnets. Only this is going on in her head. b,121b,121h,121
    font class="post"1b,121b,121I can see a new line of magnetic poetry, the Sarah Palin, edition.b,121b,121a href="http://www.magneticpoetry.com/" target="_blank"1http://www.magneticpoetry.com//a1b,121b,121It will include such classic words as:b,121b,121energyb,121Russiab,121Nu-Klee-URb,121Maverick (multiple copies)b,121Drill (2 copies)b,121Babyb,121Ahmadinejadb,121Alaskab,121Thereb,121Youb,121Gob,121Againb,121Joeb,121Marriage

  • mannybolonemannybolone Los Angeles, CA 15,025 Posts
    Tonight might actually have helped the McCain campaign...b,121b,121...if the Dow hadn't dropped another 350 pts with a new unemployment report out tomorrow that is likely to be poor. b,121b,121Straight up - Obama would have made this a horse race regardless, but the economy tanking RIGHT NOW is like some gift from god, the Democratic equivalent of Osama getting captured on Fox News. I'm betting Obama's numbers by Monday are going to keep ticking upward. b,121b,121Meanwhile, if I'm GOP strategists, I'd be relieved Palin didn't trainwreck herself but I also wouldn't be hankering to get her in front of too many more interviews, let alone a press conference (the latter would be suicidal. Imagine Helen Thomas going to town on her; UGLY).

  • mannybolonemannybolone Los Angeles, CA 15,025 Posts
    I should add, I had dinner with some colleagues tonight - basically, a political scientist, a psychologist and a sociologist-working-in-human-development and they were ALL paranoid/pessimistic as f---. It's weird that I'd be the lone person in the mix saying, "seriously, the prospects are good! Not guaranteed but good!" They're all expecting some combination of hardcore Bradley effect + Diebold shadiness even though they were also saying shit like, "my parents haven't voted in 20 years and they re-registered this year so they could vote for Obama." That's the realness right there - so many new voters in the mix this year and most of them are going to lean 'Bama.

  • luckluck 4,077 Posts
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    b,121Tonight might actually have helped the McCain campaign...
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121This is what I cannot understand. For all pomp about Obama not being ready to lead, McCain's plan on key issues offers little substantive difference from the current path of George W. Bush. Failure to change course in the middle of a strategic blunder is one of the attributable definitions of a failure to lead properly. Frankly, Iraq under McCain should logically qualify as some sort of regression. John McCain is certainly not George W. Bush, but he's ceded too much in the way of politically pragmatic policy for his unique nature to shine through. As I've noted before, I voted for John McCain in the 2000 GOP primary. I was a different man then, and although I do not regret my decision at the time, I certainly know when a candidate I once voted for has changed his tack.b,121b,121From Joe Biden tonight: "The issue is, how different is John McCain's policy going to be than George Bush's? I haven't heard anything yet." And then the man hit on four or five major points to this effect. Palin said nothing about this. Palin's analogous to the denuded emperor, to follow the fable, and the GOP base are the up-swept, enraptured townsfolk that cannot fathom the lack of substance parading around before them. Obama should win this election, but they need to try the old "are you better off after 8 years of Republican leadership?" line. They need to define the GOP not as "conservatives" but as "Republicans."b,121b,121Say: If Sarah Palin ever runs for National Mother Of The Year, I'd cast my vote for her. But, my god.

  • It's a bit harder to justify electing someone all folksy and dopey after Bush. That I've heard a lot of.b,121b,121Did she perform well? Shit, all she had to do was speak in a moderately coherent fashion. The bar was on the FLOOR. b,121b,121Did she win? Not by my guess. She'll be redeemed in the eyes of Walmart maaaahms and freaky republicans that see her as a "rising star of the party", but nobody with half a brain - and that includes many conservatives - could think that she was any smarter or more well-informed than before. It was clear as day that she had been cramming into the early light for weeks. The only difference is, this time, the cramming seemed to stick.b,121b,121The difference between Biden, who clearly knew what he was talking about most of the time, and Palin, who clearly didn't, was striking.

  • Birdman9Birdman9 5,417 Posts
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    a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosniaks" target="_blank"1Actually, Biden's correct on that one.
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121But what of the Hulkamaniacs[/b]?b,121b,121img src="http://theblogentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/hulk-hogan.jpg"1

  • Birdman9Birdman9 5,417 Posts
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    b,121Meanwhile, if I'm GOP strategists, I'd be relieved Palin didn't trainwreck herself but I also wouldn't be hankering to get her in front of too many more interviews, let alone a press conference (the latter would be suicidal. Imagine Helen Thomas going to town on her; UGLY).
    b,121
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121Here's the rub, though, and where human nature gets interesting. They won't be able to help themselves, many of them are so enamored of her newfound ability to simply not embarrass herself that her reins will now be loosened. I don't anticipate any legit press conferences soon (ever? could they do that if she were the VP?), but now they have their confidence back, the requests for interviews are going to be enormous, and they will have to let her talk.

  • They're in a bind on the press conference. If she does a few she will remain fodder for Stewart/Colbert/etc but if she doesn't it would be TOTALLY unprecedented and the dems would have a field day.b,121b,121After 8 years of Cheney, most Americans don't want a secretive VP who won't answer questions.

  • motown67motown67 4,513 Posts
    The debate helps McCain because beforehand even some REpublicans were openly questioning whether he should've picked McCain. There was even that rumor going around that she might withdraw. her showing inthe debate ends all that and re-shores up the Republican debate.b,121b,121As O poined out, the real news isn't the debate, won't change anyting, it's the continuing bad economic news. That will be the nail in the coffin for McCain.b,121b,121Also, on Iraq, when it comes down to it, both of their plans are very similar. McCain has been talking about a withdrawal as well, just without a timeline.

  • I wouldn't be so fast to agree with Odub on the debate helping McCain much.b,121b,121Coming from a table of academics in California, it just sounds like typical Democrat mentality - "Americans are stupid that's why we don't win".b,121b,121I may yet be proved wrong, but I disagree wholeheartedly.

  • pcmrpcmr 5,591 Posts
    Also....

  • Birdman9Birdman9 5,417 Posts
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    b,121The debate helps McCain because beforehand even some REpublicans were openly questioning whether he should've picked McCain. There was even that rumor going around that she might withdraw. her showing inthe debate ends all that and re-shores up the Republican debate.
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    b,121As O poined out, the real news isn't the debate, won't change anyting, it's the continuing bad economic news. That will be the nail in the coffin for McCain.
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    b,121Also, on Iraq, when it comes down to it, both of their plans are very similar. McCain has been talking about a withdrawal as well, just without a timeline.
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    font class="post"1b,121b,121I think you are right. last night was a good night, as opposed to bad, for the GOP. This morning a new day dawns on a still-shaky economic landscape with not much relief in sight, and McCain has abandoned MI. So one good night is cold comfort in what could well be a month of bad weeks for McCain.

  • Deep_SangDeep_Sang 1,081 Posts
    Palin performed decently. If you ask me, the reason that she is better at a situation like a debate than an interview is because a) she has notes in front of her, and b) she was not really pressed on any questions.b,121b,121It's much easier to respond coherently to questions when the answers are written down in front of you.b,121b,121I wouldn't expect her to be all that much better in an interview now than she has been in the past.

  • She was on her note cards the entire time, and the rules were adjusted so that there would be no follow-ups or clarifications.b,121b,121This might have been enough to stop the mass defection of Republicans away from the Palin pick, but it isn't really going to sway many independents.b,121b,121Biden did better than I expected. I think he won Obama some votes, whereas all Palin did was defend some who might have otherwise stayed home.b,121b,121CBS' post-debate poll had Palin at 48% ready to lead, I think, to Biden's 80+%

  • "Your wife is a schoolteacher... Well her reward's in heaven, right?"b,121b,121That was a MAJOR f*ck up that will stick. Watch.
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