So what happened in 2006 then? Why cede Congress to the Democrats if it's about consolidating GOP power through voter fraud? b,121b,121I'm just saying.
b,121I actually go to RCP for overall numbers, because their site seems to skew slightly right-center (or merely more cautious) overall. It also seems to be a bit handicapped against Obama [i]vis a vis
/i1 538 (by at least -0.5), and I like my numbers cooked a bit against me - like a clock that's set ahead so you get up earlier.
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font class="post"1b,121b,121Yeah, I feel that. I look at RCP but frankly...I just hate their site design so I don't visit often. I also am more amendable to the kind of data crunching 538 does.
b,121So what happened in 2006 then? Why cede Congress to the Democrats if it's about consolidating GOP power through voter fraud?
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b,121I'm just saying.
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font class="post"1b,121b,121I don't think very many rational people are alleging that the results of that last several elections have been entirely fabricated by Republican overlords, but rather have been impacted[/b] by dirty tactics such as, for instance, voter intimidation (setting aside the innumerable irregularities that took place in Florida in 2000). in addition, there is many people's distrust (myself included) of electronic voting machines that are easy to hack and lack paper trails.b,121b,121so in looking at 2006, one can imagine results that reflected a Democratic landslide, rather than a soft shift to the Dems.
b,121I don't think very many rational people are alleging that the results of that last several elections have been entirely fabricated by Republican overlords, but
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font class="post"1b,121b,121No, I"m pretty sure that's the implication: that the GOP has, within their power, the ability to shift elections the way they want. Not in landslides but enough of a "nudge" to produce the results they desire.
b,121I don't think very many rational people are alleging that the results of that last several elections have been entirely fabricated by Republican overlords, but
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b,121No, I"m pretty sure that's the implication: that the GOP has, within their power, the ability to shift elections the way they want. Not in landslides but enough of a "nudge" to produce the results they desire.
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font class="post"1b,121b,121Well, to produce the results they desire, they would need to know with some exactitude what the results would be without any tampering. which is essentially attributing omniscence or at least clairvoyance to these alleged tamperers. b,121b,121there's a big difference between claiming "they" have that power, and pointing to documented instances of voter intimidation and other irregularities at the polls.
Well, they're rather far outside the traditional spread... BUT, we are in a volatile environment... if you look at the internals of those polls they are pretty on point... large sampling, adequate weighting... Quinnipiac is a pretty good polling firm.b,121b,121I think they're higher than they should be, but they ARE on trend... so I'm pretty happy with them.
b,121Well, they're rather far outside the traditional spread... BUT, we are in a volatile environment... if you look at the internals of those polls they are pretty on point... large sampling, adequate weighting... Quinnipiac is a pretty good polling firm.
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b,121I think they're higher than they should be, but they ARE on trend... so I'm pretty happy with them.
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font class="post"1b,121b,121I am trying to modulate my enthusiasm a bit. I have been brought up to the highest highs before and then it all comes crashing down. I am confident, but I am trying not to be overconfident.b,121b,121I agree that if those numbers are backed up by subsequent polls I think I can relax a bit. Either OH or FL will kill McCain in this election.
the McCain campaigns own polling must be telling them something they don't like the sound of - hence all these 'suspend the race' stunts - I heard j mac interviewed on NPR this morning & he sounds shook...
I understand, but as I've linked elsewhere this is nowhere near what either Kerry or Gore were at a month out.b,121b,121I can say with some confidence that without a real game changer (not out of the question) it will be difficult for McCain to win this election.b,121b,121Then again, there are the yard signs.
who do you guys have in toss-upsb,121b,121I am loving how close ohio isb,121b,121what about florida?b,121b,121getting those 2 pretty much means img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/game.gif" alt="" /1 right?b,121b,121the trends are incredibleb,121b,121realclearpolitics.com = img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/happyday.gif" alt="" /1
b,121the McCain campaigns own polling must be telling them something they don't like the sound of - hence all these 'suspend the race' stunts - I heard j mac interviewed on NPR this morning & he sounds shook...
Republican strategists are wondering aloud why he was even in Iowa - first of all it's nowhere near flipping for McCain so it's a waste of time/money but also, even out of blue-leaning states, Iowans LOVE Obama... it doesn't surprise me that they'd give McCain a hard time.b,121b,121I'm just hoping his campaign continues to flounder - it's fun to watch.
font class="post"1b,121b,121Sadly, the GOP line on Sarah Palin is one that will be repeated long after the fact, even if they lose. PTA membership= REAL experience, Reading books/PHDs= Elitist, Up=Down, 2+2=5, War=Peace....Orwell is laughing is ass off in the great beyond, Doublespeak is alive and well.
all her experience, political and pta, aside...maybe the bigger issue is that she has not been able to show any depth of understanding any larger issue yet...no detail, no specifics, no context, no ability to offer analysis
b,121I don't think very many rational people are alleging that the results of that last several elections have been entirely fabricated by Republican overlords, but
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b,121No, I"m pretty sure that's the implication: that the GOP has, within their power, the ability to shift elections the way they want. Not in landslides but enough of a "nudge" to produce the results they desire.
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b,121Well, to produce the results they desire, they would need to know with some exactitude* what the results would be without any tampering
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font class="post"1b,121b,121Diebold will be proud to deliver the results for Ohio.b,121b,121Diebold knows* with some exactitude, so there's the how[/b] the Republicans could know. Didn't Diebold return more Republican votes for Ohio than there were voters in 2006?b,121I watched the 2000/01 election in a Cambodian village with some of the poorest, least educated people on the planet. And they could see the election was a crock of sh*t.
Wow. I am watching McCain speechifying live on MSNBC and he just said that he would bring food prices down by eliminating subsidies for ethanol and agricultural goods.b,121b,121Is he just giving up on the farmers?
b,121Wow. I am watching McCain speechifying live on MSNBC and he just said that he would bring food prices down by eliminating subsidies for ethanol and agricultural goods.
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b,121Is he just giving up on the farmers?
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font class="post"1b,121b,121Farmers have WAY too many subsidies, and eliminating the corn ethanol subsidy would bring down the cost of corn. However, food prices are high because petrol is expensive, eliminating subsidies won't solve that.b,121b,121But just to give you an idea, there are subsidies for farmers raking in hundreds of thousands a year, and some subsidies actually (although perhaps inadvertently) provide incentive for farmers NOT to produce. That doesn't exactly help the cost of food. I strongly encourage rescinding some of those. The farm lobby has democrats in their pocket.
this is true.b,121corn and its subsidies are a cancerb,121b,121but its still political suicide to start trumpeting eliminating those subsidies. up there with proposing a gas tax hike
b,121I don't think very many rational people are alleging that the results of that last several elections have been entirely fabricated by Republican overlords, but
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b,121No, I"m pretty sure that's the implication: that the GOP has, within their power, the ability to shift elections the way they want. Not in landslides but enough of a "nudge" to produce the results they desire.
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b,121Well, to produce the results they desire, they would need to know with some exactitude* what the results would be without any tampering
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b,121Diebold will be proud to deliver the results for Ohio.
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b,121Diebold knows* with some exactitude, so there's the
how[/b] the Republicans could know. Didn't Diebold return more Republican votes for Ohio than there were voters in 2006?b,121I watched the 2000/01 election in a Cambodian village with some of the poorest, least educated people on the planet. And they could see the election was a crock of sh*t. b,121b,121h,121
font class="post"1b,121b,121believe me, I'm as skeptical of Diebold as anyone, I was denouncing them at a time that it seemed crackpot to be doing so. I'm arguing that the 2000 election was stolen, and I have complete distrust of electronic voting machines that lack paper trails. My suspicion is that there have been voting machines that have been programmed to give statistical adjustments to certain candidates in certain precincts. I don't believe that numbers have been completely fabricated, there's a brazenness and detectability there that I think even the docile, relatively gullible (when it comes to elections) American public wouldn't stand for.
b,121believe me, I'm as skeptical of Diebold as anyone, I was denouncing them at a time that it seemed crackpot to be doing so. I'm arguing that the 2000 election
was stolen, and I have complete distrust of electronic voting machines that lack paper trails. My suspicion is that there have been voting machines that have been programmed to give statistical adjustments to certain candidates in certain precincts. I don't believe that numbers have been completely fabricated, there's a brazenness and detectability there that I think even the docile, relatively gullible (when it comes to elections) American public wouldn't stand for. b,121b,121h,121
font class="post"1b,121b,121Mmm, yes. I don't even think the '06 would have needed much tampering. Kerry just wasn't a very good alternative. But I'm sure if the process had been really thoroughly scrutinised, we wouldn't be discussing this now as a 'possiblity'.b,121b,121To O-Dub's point about why the Republicans would let slip power in congress - I'm not saying rigging an election is as easy as pressing a button. A lot of time and effort would be needed, and going on the public demeanor of the Republicans up until that point, I'm sure, no, certain[/b] that the pure un-bridled arrogance of those f*ckers would've blinded them to the possibility of losing a majority to the Dems.b,121b,121I just hope Obama raises enough money to buy this one.
b,121Republican strategists are wondering aloud why he was even
in Iowa - first of all it's nowhere near flipping for McCain so it's a waste of time/money but also, even out of blue-leaning states, Iowans LOVE Obama... it doesn't surprise me that they'd give McCain a hard time.b,121b,121I'm just hoping his campaign continues to flounder - it's fun to watch. b,121b,121h,121
font class="post"1b,121b,121Srsly, that's a better question and further evidence of folks in his own party starting to ask, Who is that the wheel of this campaign? We don't hear stories about Obama getting grilled by the Dallas Morning News editorial staff because Obama doesn't campaign in states he's not going to at least compete in, much less sit down with the editorial staff. WTF? b,121b,121The polling data is encouraging but ever since Obama was down in the polls a month ago, I stopped paying too close of attention -- it's about grinding it out the next month, doing what he was doing, and it's going to work out alright. Wrap up the vote drive, hit those swing states hard, keep thy hands steady, and then GOTV.
Just to add - the thing that doesn't even really map well onto polling is what extent the voter registration drives that Obama's campaign has been grinding out will do between now and Nov. That so-called ground game played a massive role in Obama > Clinton and it will likely play a role on Nov 4. I'm saying this cautiously but we could see even larger margins of win as a consequence than what the most precise polling can predict.
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