Hillary Clinton has legs.

luckluck 4,077 Posts
edited March 2008 in Strut Central
It's really starting to look like Hillary Clinton wins the Dem nomination on the strength of superdelegates and the forthcoming momentum she'll pick up over the course of the remaining FIVE AND A HALF MONTHS until the Democratic National Convention. She'll then get her ass handed to her by John McCain in the general.Obama suddenly looks gassed. He's going to have to go on the offensive (read: negative) to win this, and Obama doesn't do dirt. He just doesn't.Momentum + Ohio + Texas + RI + Rezko + Rezko trial + momentum + CaNAdaFTA + GOP backwards Hillary votes + momentum = lots and lots and lots of blood in the water.Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States:
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  Comments


  • God you guys are fair weather.

  • tripledoubletripledouble 7,636 Posts
    for real
    skittish little bitches

  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    The only way Obama wins the nomination will be some really ugly fighting from here on out. I don't see it.

    The only way Clinton wins the white house is with Obama on her ticket.... and I'm not sure I see that either.

  • luckluck 4,077 Posts
    God you guys are fair weather.

    for real
    skittish little bitches

    Fuck both of you. I'm not fair-weather about the man I voted for in the Illinois State primary, general, and National primary elections. I'm not going to stop pulling for the man.

    But MENE MENE TEKEL PARSIN. I'm not too blind to see.

  • RockadelicRockadelic Out Digging 13,993 Posts
    MENE MENE TEKEL PARSIN.

    I don't think the scales go that high.

  • The only way Obama wins the nomination will be some really ugly fighting from here on out. I don't see it.

    Wrong. The math has him winning. You think she's winning any other states aside from -- maybe -- Pennsylvania?

    Why are you suddenly doing an about face on what you know will not happen: a brokered convention?

  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    Who are you guys trying to convince? There is barely a single Clinton supporter on this website.

    But it is what it is. The Democratic Party will align with the Blue Collar vote, they will place emphasis on "blue" states over places like Georgia and Idaho, the superdelegates will flip and flip again, the Florida and Michigan delegates will be seated (even they have second primaries, out of which Hillary will win at least Florida), Pennsylvania will support her BIG as will Puerto Rico. Ohio wasn't even close.

  • I'm not too blind to see.

    Don't insult me because you're feeling sad at this moment[/b].

    She is an also-ran with a fluke win.

  • luckluck 4,077 Posts
    MENE MENE TEKEL PARSIN.

    I don't think the scales go that high.

    Oh, I think they DO.





    Back to being serious.

  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts


    Wrong. The math has him winning. You think she's winning any other states aside from -- maybe -- Pennsylvania?

    She'll win Puerto Rico (60 delegates or so), she'll get Florida, and the party will consider her states "bigger" than his.

    They'll angle for some compromise to be made, such as a VP nod.


    You want it to be one way, but it's the other way.

  • Hilarious/sad.

    Go buy a quart of chocolate ice cream and get busy.

  • RockadelicRockadelic Out Digging 13,993 Posts
    Touche~ Luck

    I'm wondering if the Republicans that voted for Hillary in Texas, because they believe she is the more beatable opponent, could have consisted of 1%-2% of the vote??

  • I don't really see how some of you guys can be writing off Obama (JP in particular). The whole thing with today's votes were that Ohio and Texas were supposed to be her firewalls (that was the hype in the after math of Super Tuesday anyway). Like, in other words, Hillary was supposed to whup ass today. Texas is virtually tied as of this moment, with the caucus results yet to come in. That hardly qualifies as an ass whuppin. She may still lose Texas. Sure, she may live another day, but to say one or the other is a lock is follish. The media likes to switch things up every couple weeks, so it's not like she's going to control the momentum for the next 5+ months. And if it looks like Obama is in trouble, his previous fundraising efforts will seem piddling by comparison.

  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    Hilarious/sad.

    Go buy a quart of chocolate ice cream and get busy.

    Hey look man I am not your enemy. I have argued, spoken, poasted... and if my primary allowed independents, would have voted... for Obama.

    It is what it is though. You can curse me now, but see if it doesn't happen. I hope I'm wrong.

  • Hey, I know you're not my enemy. I'm just trying to cheer you up.

  • luckluck 4,077 Posts
    I'm not too blind to see.

    Don't insult me because you're feeling sad at this moment[/b].

    She is an also-ran with a fluke win.

    I wouldn't call three states (two huge) in a row "a fluke win."

    Again: There is nearly half a year 'til the DNC. The Rezko trial has just started and, well, re-peruse my progression in the first post. McCain was bleeding in an alley three months ago, and look where he is now.

    Additionally: Hillary is starting to get some major support from Chicago press heads like Lynn Sweet and Carol Marin. The tide is turning against my dude.

  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    I don't really see how some of you guys can be writing off Obama (JP in particular). The whole thing with today's votes were that Ohio and Texas were supposed to be her firewalls (that was the hype in the after math of Super Tuesday anyway). Like, in other words, Hillary was supposed to whup ass today.

    She did whup ass - in Ohio and Rhode Island.

    She will eke out a victory in Texas or write the entire state off - the campaign is already circulating claims of voter intimidation and foul play on the part of the Obama campaign.

    She will whup ass in Pennsylvania, and Puerto Rico.

    Her argument for the throne resonates with Establishment Democrats, and the group they're most scared of toying with is the blue collar "salt of the earth" voter.

    I might be a cynical motherfucker, but I can see this schitt coming a mile away.

  • luckluck 4,077 Posts
    Touche~ Luck

    I'm wondering if the Republicans that voted for Hillary in Texas, because they believe she is the more beatable opponent, could have consisted of 1%-2% of the vote??




    SCREWED.

  • JahLarryJahLarry 62 Posts
    There are so many variables at this point those who are sure of one result sound a bit too confident. Yes, Texas looks like it's an eke-out for Clinton so far, but nearly a third of the Texas delegates are pledged based on caucuses, which is currently a wild-card (and an area in which Obama has tended to better in previous contests).

    Basically it's been a great day for Clinton after a very good three weeks for Obama. Still, the media and those of us just watching and hoping have this annoying tendency to call the contest based on what's happening *right now*.

    People who are sure of a Clinton victory have a chance to make some good money here -

    http://www.intrade.com/

    Put that dough where ya mouth is . . .


  • ariel_calmerariel_calmer 3,762 Posts
    Obama will also still be leading in delegates at the end of the night. Why are you all ready to bury him? So there's a brokered convention, we'll live.

  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    Not a betting man, I*n but a cynic to be sure.

    Hey look it's a long way to the convention... I just see the potential for this to get real ugly and I think the Party will reign it in... and I just don't see them giving it to Obama unless he pulls out a big upset somewhere.

    Hope I'm wrong.

  • I don't really see how some of you guys can be writing off Obama (JP in particular). The whole thing with today's votes were that Ohio and Texas were supposed to be her firewalls (that was the hype in the after math of Super Tuesday anyway). Like, in other words, Hillary was supposed to whup ass today.

    She did whup ass - in Ohio and Rhode Island.

    She will eke out a victory in Texas or write the entire state off - the campaign is already circulating claims of voter intimidation and foul play on the part of the Obama campaign.

    She will whup ass in Pennsylvania, and Puerto Rico.

    Her argument for the throne resonates with Establishment Democrats, and the group they're most scared of toying with is the blue collar "salt of the earth" voter.

    I might be a cynical motherfucker, but I can see this schitt coming a mile away.

    Rhode Island and Puerto Rico are not significant primaries, delegate wise. I say it again, her campaign justified her continued involvement in this race based around the expectation she would win Texas AND Ohio handily, not one or the other. As for future primaries, granted she can be expected to win Penn. What are your guys hunches regarding Mississippi, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Indiana, etc.

  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    Obama, Obama, Clinton, Obama, Clinton (in that order)

    I just checked and PR has 28 pledged delegates and 5 superdelegates, so not as much as I thought.

  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    Why are you all ready to bury him? So there's a brokered convention, we'll live.

    I think that the Party is going to bury him to avoid a brokered convention.

  • tripledoubletripledouble 7,636 Posts
    dont be so sure about PA

  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    Although I have to say, even a conservative spin on the delegate counter puts Obama ~100 over Clinton.

  • JahLarryJahLarry 62 Posts
    Those are *investors* Jonny.

    I understand your cynicism, no doubt. And yes, if you had to pick an establishment candidate, it would be her, and that raises the legitimate fear that a near-tie would produce a convention disposed to nominate her. However, the cigar-chompers in the back room are very cognizant of the fact that an Obama-McCain matchup looks much more winnable. And after 8 years of Bush, the establishment is seriously hankering for a winner. I'm just not so sure that in the scenario of a muddled delegate count they would swing towards Hil.

    Another fact they're aware of - Obama's proved to be a hell of a fundraiser and if he chooses to go the non-matching-funds route, that is a real-world advantage for him in the general.

    Let's get some "Yes We Can" up in here!!!!

  • Although I have to say, even a conservative spin on the delegate counter puts Obama ~100 over Clinton.

    I gave Hillary the results she has tonight plus a split in Texas. Then I went with her winning 60-40 down the line.

    = she has +3 pledged delegates at the end.

    == not gonna happen.

    "YES WE CAN!"

  • JahLarryJahLarry 62 Posts
    Cool to see that Slate delegate counter. I like your math, teacher.

    Good Lord, the next significant primary (Penn) is 7 weeks away! This fight is going to have them exhausted and ragged. Not to mention there'll be lots of time for them to produce gaffes and mistakes for McCain to use. Ugh.

  • motown67motown67 4,513 Posts
    I heard a report earlier today on NPR that said that these Democratic parimaries still give out delegates proportionally, so unless Clinton had some blowouts, after tonight Obama would still hold the lead in pledged delegates because he was ahead before tonight's elecitons, and would still get enough from coming in a close second to maintain his lead. That means its all up to the superdelegates again to decide the race and from what they're saying, Obama still has the lead in those as well. The lead is closing however. It seems like this will go down to the wire.
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