CRIMEA
vintageinfants
4,538 Posts
i'm not about the political threads, but it seems as though there is an actual world war about to start and no one's stepped up to start the topic.
it's pretty clear what the obvious points of this are (create a power vacuum, invade, etc), but what are the nuances that someone with the inside track can put us up on?
does this only end with putin and the rooskies getting bombed into oblivion?
it's pretty clear what the obvious points of this are (create a power vacuum, invade, etc), but what are the nuances that someone with the inside track can put us up on?
does this only end with putin and the rooskies getting bombed into oblivion?
Comments
I may have mentioned this book on here before (?), but Friedman does some interesting geopolitical forecasting in it. This includes predicting a revitalized campaign to expand Russian influence in the 2010s with "Eastern Bloc" countries that will lead to a series of conflicts with the U.S. and other allies. It's been a while, but IIRC, he argues that Russia will not be as powerful as it once was in the next 100 years, and there won't be as intense a Cold War; but there will be a series of these aggressive (desperate?) lurches with increasingly diminishing returns over the coming decades.
No inside track here, but...
I don't see a world war or Russia getting bombed coming out of this.
Lots of saber rattling by the UN/G8 crowd followed by sanctions damaging but not crippling Russian economy. End result is Crimea being annexed to Russia and Putin wins. Or it's possible Putin withdraws after getting a buttload of concessions regarding the pipeline, Russian Naval stations and continued military presence in Crimea etc.
does that make the entire planet subject to a "routine safety invasion"?
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
I'm waiting to hear/read the US response to this. Things could get ugly in a few months.
that's what i mean, the flex is on and the first shot has been fired.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405320
"If (Russian President Vladimir) Putin wants to be the president who started the war between two neighbouring and friendly countries, Ukraine and Russia, he's reached this target within a few inches". - Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk
George Bush Sr. put a similar legal framework in place way back to clear the way for US military intervention without UN backing. Except his didn't even need US nationals to be in the country. More risk of a split Ukraine and ugly civil war than there is superpower conflict, I think...
Kind of interesting how so many former Soviets are nostalgic for the iron grip of the old regime.
- There is fuck all the EU (dependent on Russia for gas + tourism) or US (dependent on Russia for Syria/Iran negotiations) can do.
- the native Tatar people of Crimea are really the ones fucked here, they're not an insignificant % of the population there and have fought to be able to return after being purged by Stalin back when Ukraine was annexed by the USSR, and I could see them resisting violently if Russia went on to annex the region.
WHAT ABOUT BENGHAZI!!!!!!!
Yeah you'd be surpised how many Russians still think Stalin was a great leader.
GLOBAL WARMING IS AMERICA'S NUMBER ONE ENEMY!
We should let him.
:cry: You never stop whining, do you? Putin is "innocent" now? :comedy_gold:
b/w
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140303
The Moscow stock market fell by 11.3 percent, wiping nearly $60 billion off the value of Russian companies in a day, and the central bank spent $10 billion of its reserves to prop up the rouble as investors took fright at escalating tensions with the West over the former Soviet republic.
I think somebody introduced Putin to the "...meanwhile, in Russia" meme, and he's decided it's payback.
Did not refer to Putin. People = plural, Putin = singular. If you're saying he's making a mistake and that "we" should let him, chances are that some innocents will get hurt in the process.
b/w
pretty sure putin doesn't give a shit about how the stock market performs
Well you wouldn't put it past him.
Chances are innocents get hurt no matter what. Preventing harm to innocent people can't be the only driver.
b/w
Putin may not care, but the rest of the Russian oligarchs and investors do. Let's see if Putin cares if the the Russian market and rouble lose half their value.