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CRIMEA

vintageinfantsvintageinfants 4,538 Posts
edited March 2014 in Strut Central
i'm not about the political threads, but it seems as though there is an actual world war about to start and no one's stepped up to start the topic.

it's pretty clear what the obvious points of this are (create a power vacuum, invade, etc), but what are the nuances that someone with the inside track can put us up on?

does this only end with putin and the rooskies getting bombed into oblivion?
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  • ketanketan Warmly booming riffs 3,180 Posts
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_100_Years

    I may have mentioned this book on here before (?), but Friedman does some interesting geopolitical forecasting in it. This includes predicting a revitalized campaign to expand Russian influence in the 2010s with "Eastern Bloc" countries that will lead to a series of conflicts with the U.S. and other allies. It's been a while, but IIRC, he argues that Russia will not be as powerful as it once was in the next 100 years, and there won't be as intense a Cold War; but there will be a series of these aggressive (desperate?) lurches with increasingly diminishing returns over the coming decades.
  • HorseleechHorseleech 3,830 Posts
    vintageinfants said:
    i'm not about the political threads, but it seems as though there is an actual world war about to start and no one's stepped up to start the topic.

    it's pretty clear what the obvious points of this are (create a power vacuum, invade, etc), but what are the nuances that someone with the inside track can put us up on?

    does this only end with putin and the rooskies getting bombed into oblivion?

    No inside track here, but...

    I don't see a world war or Russia getting bombed coming out of this.

    Lots of saber rattling by the UN/G8 crowd followed by sanctions damaging but not crippling Russian economy. End result is Crimea being annexed to Russia and Putin wins. Or it's possible Putin withdraws after getting a buttload of concessions regarding the pipeline, Russian Naval stations and continued military presence in Crimea etc.
  • vintageinfantsvintageinfants 4,538 Posts
    russia trying to push through a bill that makes it federally "legal" to invade any country that houses russian nationals?

    does that make the entire planet subject to a "routine safety invasion"?
  • HorseleechHorseleech 3,830 Posts
    Well, this doesn't look good:

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
  • parallaxparallax no-style-having mf'er 1,266 Posts
    Was chatting with my wife about this on the weekend. I don't know that a full-scale war will erupt, but I'm nervous that it might. The potential is definitely there.

    I'm waiting to hear/read the US response to this. Things could get ugly in a few months.
  • vintageinfantsvintageinfants 4,538 Posts
    Horseleech said:

    that's what i mean, the flex is on and the first shot has been fired.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405320

    "If (Russian President Vladimir) Putin wants to be the president who started the war between two neighbouring and friendly countries, Ukraine and Russia, he's reached this target within a few inches". - Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk
  • parallaxparallax no-style-having mf'er 1,266 Posts
    I should add that with so many European economies teetering on collapse, and so many people disenfranchised, the pessimist in me sees a recipe for significant bloodshed.
  • vintageinfantsvintageinfants 4,538 Posts
  • FrankFrank 2,379 Posts
    Nothing big is going to happen. The Ukrainian opposition is too weak and splintered to put much against a Russian intervention of the Crimea. Except maybe the fascist fraction and I won't cry any tears over those when the Russians go in. No way will there be any military action by the West against Russia. Just like there wasn't any during the Russian Georgian war.
  • FlomotionFlomotion 2,391 Posts
    vintageinfants said:
    russia trying to push through a bill that makes it federally "legal" to invade any country that houses russian nationals?

    does that make the entire planet subject to a "routine safety invasion"?

    George Bush Sr. put a similar legal framework in place way back to clear the way for US military intervention without UN backing. Except his didn't even need US nationals to be in the country. More risk of a split Ukraine and ugly civil war than there is superpower conflict, I think...

    Kind of interesting how so many former Soviets are nostalgic for the iron grip of the old regime.
  • RockadelicRockadelic Out Digging 13,993 Posts
    Me lose at Hockey, Me win at War
  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    - Ukraine is probably not going to risk all out war over Crimea, which is 2/3 Russian at this point (no small part b/c Russia has made it so by encouraging people/businesses to relocate) and would be naturally opposed to any EU-leaning government in Kiev

    - There is fuck all the EU (dependent on Russia for gas + tourism) or US (dependent on Russia for Syria/Iran negotiations) can do.

    - the native Tatar people of Crimea are really the ones fucked here, they're not an insignificant % of the population there and have fought to be able to return after being purged by Stalin back when Ukraine was annexed by the USSR, and I could see them resisting violently if Russia went on to annex the region.
  • BrianBrian 7,618 Posts
    putin will do whatever the fuck he wants because he knows the "red line" doesn't mean shit
  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    PatrickCrazy said:
    putin will do whatever the fuck he wants because he knows the "red line" doesn't mean shit

    WHAT ABOUT BENGHAZI!!!!!!!
  • BrianBrian 7,618 Posts
    zzzzzz
  • phongonephongone 1,652 Posts
    I would not understate the strategic importance of Crimea to the Russians. It is essentially Russia's only warm water port, and its Black Sea naval fleet is docked there. So yeah, I wouldn't be surprised that Putin escalates his aggression, which is scary as f*ck.
  • phongonephongone 1,652 Posts
    REMEMBER WHEN WE ALL LOL'D WHEN MITT ROMNEY SAID RUSSIA WAS AMERICA'S NUMBER ONE ENEMY?
  • FrankFrank 2,379 Posts
    It's all about controlling the champagne wineries...
  • Da VinylmentalistDa Vinylmentalist 229 Posts
    Flomotion said:
    Kind of interesting how so many former Soviets are nostalgic for the iron grip of the old regime.

    Yeah you'd be surpised how many Russians still think Stalin was a great leader.
  • RockadelicRockadelic Out Digging 13,993 Posts
    phongone said:
    REMEMBER WHEN WE ALL LOL'D WHEN MITT ROMNEY SAID RUSSIA WAS AMERICA'S NUMBER ONE ENEMY?

    GLOBAL WARMING IS AMERICA'S NUMBER ONE ENEMY!
  • Bon VivantBon Vivant The Eye of the Storm 2,018 Posts
    Putin is making a giant mistake.

    We should let him.
  • BrianBrian 7,618 Posts
    Bon Vivant said:
    Putin is making a giant mistake.

    We should let him.
    What a fucked up thing to wish upon innocent people.
  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    HOLD UP EVERYONE HERE COMES THE WORLD'S POLICEMAN
  • DJ_EnkiDJ_Enki 6,475 Posts
    Jonny_Paycheck said:
    HOLD UP EVERYONE HERE COMES THE WORLD'S POLICEMAN

  • Bon VivantBon Vivant The Eye of the Storm 2,018 Posts
    PatrickCrazy said:
    Bon Vivant said:
    Putin is making a giant mistake.

    We should let him.
    What a fucked up thing to wish upon innocent people.

    :cry: You never stop whining, do you? Putin is "innocent" now? :comedy_gold:

    b/w

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140303

    The Moscow stock market fell by 11.3 percent, wiping nearly $60 billion off the value of Russian companies in a day, and the central bank spent $10 billion of its reserves to prop up the rouble as investors took fright at escalating tensions with the West over the former Soviet republic.
  • DuderonomyDuderonomy Haut de la Garenne 7,794 Posts
    German chancellor Angela Merkel told US president Barack Obama that she thought Russian president Vladimir Putin may be ÔÇ£in another world.ÔÇØ

    ÔÇ£She was not sure he was in touch with reality", people briefed on the call said.

    I think somebody introduced Putin to the "...meanwhile, in Russia" meme, and he's decided it's payback.
  • BrianBrian 7,618 Posts
    Bon Vivant said:
    PatrickCrazy said:
    Bon Vivant said:
    Putin is making a giant mistake.

    We should let him.
    What a fucked up thing to wish upon innocent people.

    :cry: You never stop whining, do you? Putin is "innocent" now? :comedy_gold:

    b/w

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140303

    The Moscow stock market fell by 11.3 percent, wiping nearly $60 billion off the value of Russian companies in a day, and the central bank spent $10 billion of its reserves to prop up the rouble as investors took fright at escalating tensions with the West over the former Soviet republic.

    Did not refer to Putin. People = plural, Putin = singular. If you're saying he's making a mistake and that "we" should let him, chances are that some innocents will get hurt in the process.

    b/w

    pretty sure putin doesn't give a shit about how the stock market performs
  • skelskel You can't cheat karma 5,033 Posts
    He's been selling Micex futures as a short for three weeks.

    Well you wouldn't put it past him.
  • vintageinfantsvintageinfants 4,538 Posts
    as long as everyone stays out of the Bronx it's okay, right guys?
  • Bon VivantBon Vivant The Eye of the Storm 2,018 Posts
    PatrickCrazy said:


    Did not refer to Putin. People = plural, Putin = singular. If you're saying he's making a mistake and that "we" should let him, chances are that some innocents will get hurt in the process.

    b/w

    pretty sure putin doesn't give a shit about how the stock market performs

    Chances are innocents get hurt no matter what. Preventing harm to innocent people can't be the only driver.

    b/w

    Putin may not care, but the rest of the Russian oligarchs and investors do. Let's see if Putin cares if the the Russian market and rouble lose half their value.
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