Middle East on blast - analysis please?
mannybolone
Los Angeles, CA 15,025 Posts
Was reading this in the NYT today: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/middleeast/13assess.htmlCurious if Vitamin or other folks would agree with some of the underlying arguments here, esp. the idea that Iran has played a key role in destablizing everything by helping support Hezbollah on the low, plus that Hezbollah and Hamas are starting to join forces. How significant is the latter given that one is Shiite and the other Sunni?
Comments
Writing things like this means you have nothing to say.
pretty much.
If it's any conosolation to Sabadabada, I'm sure the Rethuglicans are behind this in some way.
Anecdotal: Every woman in Lebanon that "covers up" in traditional islamic wears is entitled to a check from dude who runs Hesbollah. the money almost certainly comes from Iran. their ties are way deep.
Hesbollah and Hamas have been allies against Israel for awhile. The Shia / Sunni thing is not really an issue here. It is an issue though, in the sense that things were already fragile in Lebanon between Lebanese Shia/ Sunni / Druze/ Christians, and within these groups as well. Lebanon lives in fear of reliving it's civil war....This won't help.
In terms of what this means for the US...it's tricky, Bush has said something about 'Israel's right to defend itself/ Israel shouldn't weaken the Lebanese govt.'
In other words, The US is all for Syria and Iran having less power in Lebanon, not so much for Lebanese independence but simply because they're for any lessening of Syria and Iran's power, on any stage. The US is friendly with the Lebanese govt and would like to distinguish Hesbollah from them, which Israel is not. But as per usual the US will be very restrained in any critique of Israel's use of excessive force.
no, no. The Bushies will sanctimoniously "urge restraint" like they always do when Israel is called on to defend itself. Wouldn't want to offend our "moderate" Muslim allies. Meanwhile the US would have carpet bombed these fuckers a long time ago, but, hey it's not a double standard. It's "diplomacy."
i don't know...
"President Bush said Thursday that Israel has the right to defend itself, as it launched fresh attacks on Lebanon after the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers.
Bush laid the blame for the escalation of violence along the border on Hezbollah, whose guerrillas mounted a cross-border raid earlier in the week and captured the two soldiers. He also said that Syria "needs to be held to account" for supporting and harboring Hezbollah."
The Hezbollah/Hamas alliance is strong. The fact that Israeli forces arrested most of the Hamas government recently didn't really help to cool things down.
I'm just trying to figure out what Iran and Syria have to gain from unleashing Hezbollah. Seems that it stokes the anti-Israel fires on the homefront and keeps criticism of their dictatorships on the homefront backburner.
I just can't see how Hamas expects to get anywhere without engaging Israel in peace talks. If Hamas drops "the israel must die rhetoric", talks will start very quickly.
they don't want talks, thats the point, why would they drop the ""the israel must die rhetoric"" when thats what they truly believe and the fact they believe this is what got them elected by the palestinian people in the first place
I'm skeptical that this all some grand strategy by Iran to destabilize Israel.
On the Palestinian side however, there seems to be no hope. Palestinian politics is about as fractured now as it has ever been. There are some old guard moderates in Fatah like Abbas who are completely powerless and really don't have a base. There are old school Fatah hardliners that have returned to Gaza and the West Bank in the last several years who want an armed struggle. Then you have a whole new younger generation of Fatah that has grown up with the Intifadah and suicide bombers and looks to the Al Axr (spelling?) Brigades as their role models. That doesn't even begin to talk about Hamas and the new generation of Palestinian Islamists. Most of these groups don't want any kind of negotiations and sees Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza as a victory for their violent tactics.
O, to answer your question:
There is nothing new in this article.
Iran has long been the key sponsor of terror in the region, most prominently through their outright control of Hezbollah, but also their financial support for Hamas and Jihad Islami. And don't forget there remain actual Iranian Republican Guard divisions in Lebanon (estimates vary as to how many exactly).
Assad also uses Hezbollah, allowing them to receive Iranian arms through Damascus airport, and generally encouraging them to heat up the border when it suits him.
You are right to query the Sunni-Shiite alliance. But if there's one thing that groups with otherwise acrimonious relations will set aside their differences for, it's the eternal struggle against the Little Satan Israel. Lebanon is a good example of this, where disparate factions of Druze, Sunni and Shiah (and even occasionally the Catholics and other Christian minorities) routinely show unified support for Hezbollah's attacks on Israel
Israel withdrew from Southern Lebanon in 2000. Israel demanded that the UN certify their withdrawal in order to quiet any claims on Hezbollah/Lebanon's part that they were still an occupier. The UN did so, certifying Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon as complete (Though there remains the question of the Shebaa Farms area, the UN has agreed that this land constitutes Syrian territory, not Lebanese).
Based on Israel's certified withdrawal, any incursion by Hezbollah into Israel (through raids on the ground or rocket fire) is illegal.
The Israeli withdrawal from the South was supposed to coincide with the Lebanese army's moving in to fill in the void. Also, remember that the same security council resolution that called for Syrian troups to withdraw from Lebanon, also required the Lebanese army to reassert control of their territroy in the South. They have failed to do so, and Hezbollah has de facto control of much of Lebenon south of the capital (not to mention large sections of Beirut).
As a result the situation on the Northern border has been tense for some time. I lived on the northern border post-withdrawal and it's a scary situation. Things are (or were) quiet, but extrememly intense. I could see the border from my town, and when you walk up to it there's Hezbollah heads taking your picture, etc. They've set up artilleray positions and bases all along the border. And the miniscule UN "peace-keeping" force that exists there is in open cahoots with Hezbollah (they were implicated in the kidnapping of three soldiers a couple years ago).
So basically this was bound to happen.
A final note on Hezbollah: While they are supported by large segments of the Lebanese populaiton as having brought about the end of the Israeli occupation of the South, we should be clear on what they stand for. They are an fundamentalist group that supports institution of Sharia not only in Lebanon, but across the Middle East. They support the eradication of Israel. They are responsible for the deaths of countless Christian, Druze and Sunnis since the Civil War. They killed over 241 US Marines and 58 Frenchmen in 1983. They blew up the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires. They continue to harass Israel's northern border, land to which they have absolutely no claim whatsoever.
Plus they do this Nazi salute thing:
I'm confident that by Monday they will have a solution in place and everything will be cool.
I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not
Israel has a right to defend itself against the constant, long-term and unilateral regional terrorism it has endured for far, FAR too long. Unfortunately, hypocrits worldwide lambast Israel despite it's constant efforts toward peace, while those around it locally do not desire peace at all and instead regards Israel's initiatives toward national harmony as weakness. No other country in the world would put up with what Israel does, and equally, no other country in the world is under as much biased scrutiny as Israel for every single action it takes. It is unfortunate that unarmed civilians are losing their lives, and I truly have utmost sympathy. However, it must be put forth that many "civilians" are themselves OPENLY in support of terror, and are just as at fault as those launching the rockets and shells and the (absolutely pathetic) suicide bomb attacks. I believe that if you actively support or celebrate the violent deaths of others, and in *anyway* facilitate harm to others, you deserve what's coming to you.
Truthfully, I could write on this topic for hours and hours, but I'll leave it at this for now.
To close, I hope Israel beats the daylights out of these fucking terrorists once and for all (but that's far too ambitious a hope, I'm certain).
RON
Lyrics taken from Tom Lehrer's "National Brotherhood Week"...
Oh, the white folks hate the black folks,
And the black folks hate the white folks.
To hate all but the right folks
Is an old established rule.
But during National Brotherhood Week, National Brotherhood Week,
Lena Horne and Sheriff Clarke are dancing cheek to cheek.
It's fun to eulogize
The people you despise,
As long as you don't let 'em in your school.
Oh, the poor folks hate the rich folks,
And the rich folks hate the poor folks.
All of my folks hate all of your folks,
It's American as apple pie.
But during National Brotherhood Week, National Brotherhood Week,
New Yorkers love the Puerto Ricans 'cause it's very chic.
Step up and shake the hand
Of someone you can't stand.
You can tolerate him if you try.
Oh, the Protestants hate the Catholics,
And the Catholics hate the Protestants,
And the Hindus hate the Moslems,
And everybody hates the Jews[/b].
But during National Brotherhood Week, National Brotherhood Week,
It's National Everyone-smile-at-one-another-hood Week.
Be nice to people who
Are inferior to you.
It's only for a week, so have no fear.
Be grateful that it doesn't last all year!
I agree with your statement. But somehow I think the israeli reaction against Lebanon is a bit too harsh. Israel should rather try to isolate the Hezbollah in Lebanon than to bomb the airport or other important infrastructure. Those actions could easily intensify the support for Hezbollah among civilians in Lebanon. For example, Israel could try to advise/equip/train the Lebanese army so they can do their job in southern Lebanon. It makes me mad to see that maniacs like Hezbollah have 5000+ (well equipped) armed men under their command in a souvereign state while the army of this state is powerless. What makes me even more mad is that now countless civilians have to suffer because of those extremist bastards!
Tobi,
While I agree that Israels reaction to the 2 kidnapped soldiers is intense, there actions are very neccasary. Lebanon, despite their "freedom" from Syria is still very much an anarchist state with tribs controlling areas rather than any real government. Hezbollah is defintly in power when it comes the southern reigon of Lebanon and just like Hamas they really don't want to be cool with the Jews.
Israel could never gain the kind of respect they would need in order to advise and train soldiers in S.Lebanon, its hostile territory that only recently hasn't been occupied by another country. This includes years of Israeli occupation of the area. If you were a citizen of this country would you really respect your former occupiers/ current enemy coming in to teach you how to be responsible?
Based on reports I've heard on NPR this was a planned operation that goes back at least 5 months and I have no doubt that hezbollah chose to strike now while Israel is warring on the Gaza front. As far as I'm concerned this was an attack meant to put Israel back against a wall and now that its there the unfortunate retaliation is going to leave more people in the area resentful of Israels existence. The Israeli army has sworn to take Lebanon "20 years back" meaning it is bombing the shit out of their infastructure and trying its best to render them unable to start any new offensives.
My bigger worry in all this is the silent threat of Syria or Iran launching missles and getting invovled directly. Opening up a 3rd front is dangerous on so many levels that I don't want to even think about it.
I know that this military operation against Hezbollah is neccesary. My fear is that Hezbollah will gain more supporters in Lebanon and in the islamic world if Israel continues to strike non-military targets. As you said, Israel is going to bomb the shit out of Lebanon right now. But will that do any harm to the Hezbollah? I just read on aljazeera that Irans president talked with Lebanon's prime minister and assured him that Iran will support Lebanon against Israel. I worry that Iran will use this crisis to increase its already strong influence in Lebanon.
Ok, but what options has Israel now? I could imagine they'll reoccupy the south of Lebanon to decrease the possibility of Hezbollah rocket attacks against Israel. Or they declare the south of Lebanon as no man's land and a "free-fire" zone, where everything that moves gets fired on. They'll also try to cut off Hezbollah's supply of weapons. And then we come to the point when Israel will have to deal with Syria, because it is believed (or sure) that Iran transfers weapons and ammunition via Damascus.
Somehow I don't think they will get involved directly. Both Iran and Syria know that Israel has weapons to strike back. Iran's president has a big mouth but even he knows that attacking Israel directly is like writing a check his ass can't catch. He knows that the U.S. would never tolerate an open assault by Iran or Syria. I think especially Iran will intensify its support (money, weapons, maybe even volunteer fighters) for Hezbollah, Hamas and all the other extremist idiots.
me and you are on the exact same page
I think the bottom line here is Israel is damned if it do and damned if it don't.
best case scenario: this will all be over in a few days the soldiers will be freed and all sides will fall back
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