i heard on NPR that for every $.01 gas goes up, it costs a major commercial airliner over $400,000,000 a year. somehow that doesn't makes sense mathmatically, but still... fuck!
That sounds like it was formultaed by a tax accountant for the airlines. "Hmmmmm..lets see, if gas goes up a penny, no one will fly, we'll have to raise ticket prices again, lower service (again)....etc etc
I will holler at you for some of this next time I'm there.....
What up Aser! Yes hommie, moving to Tokyo Indefinitely. Plaese to holla when you will be in Tokyo. We will eat lots of ramen, drinks lots of sake and act a fool.
i know it sucks to see prices going up. but prices are going up on everything. there just aren't big ass signs on every corner showing you the prices are going up.
plus as far as i know the price of a gallon of gas is still let than a gallon of milk. (i'm not sure about this, milk does not do this body good, but substitute a loaf of bread etc.) seems more important to eat than to drive.
i'm with the peeps who are talking about alternative transportation. driving a few blocks to visit your homie is ridiculous. walk, ride a bike, take the bus, train, trolley.
i know it sucks to see prices going up. but prices are going up on everything. there just aren't big ass signs on every corner showing you the prices are going up.
actually we got a pretty robust (read: low) core CPI number today. but if i'm not mistaken prior numbers were adjusted up as well, so it kind of balances out. it's too early to tell, but the fears of oil prices driving inflation up may be exaggerated.
and sween - i'm not really sold on the wal mart excuse. their costs did rise, which probably had something to do with it, but you're talking about approx. $30 million in additional fuel costs to a company that makes about $75 billion per quarter - not that big of a deal. whether or not it's affected consumers' spending habits is another story, but all indicators show that our economy has been strong through oil's meteoric rise in price over the past 18 months. so far. bear in mind that the oil prices we see quoted are for oil futures, which implies that a large part of that (incredibly thick) market is speculative, so inevitably there's going to be a lag on the impact of oil prices as they adjust to their proper trading range.
my group is going to start up an energy trading team, but i don't trust that market at all. it's become so skittish because every day seems to make a new record high, and the geopolitical factors have become pretty prominent. this is probably only going to get worse as we approach peak oil. i would say that a fair price range for oil is $60-80 a barrel .... for a long, long time ... but then again, i don't know all that much about the market. i would be shocked to see it dip below $50 a barrel though, probably ever at this point.
the VLO call is probably a good one. that's a company that's going to be flirting with all-time highs for a while, so the options route is a stable one considering pullbacks, profit taking, etc., in a strong up trend. nobody knows where this shit is going to stop (recall the goldman report claiming that oil could reach $105 a barrel). but i'm so in the dark on this shit and worried about general paranoia in the energy market that i'd be inclined to scrap the idea of individual stocks and go with an ETF. there are some very nice oil services ETFs out there that are pretty much composed by market share. but as for VLO - i wouldn't at all be surprised to see that company outperform the sector. in fact, i'd expect it ...
energy by and large is hot as fuck. check out some coal stocks - BTU and ACI come to mind and they've been KILLING lately. outperforming oil stocks by a large margin, actually. but you've got to have some balls and some money to buy the highs and sell the highers like that. i'm just hoping that heating oil stays strong so that my stocks in that industry pull themselves out of the damn gutter.
and sween - i'm not really sold on the wal mart excuse. their costs did rise, which probably had something to do with it, but you're talking about approx. $30 million in additional fuel costs to a company that makes about $75 billion per quarter - not that big of a deal. whether or not it's affected consumers' spending habits is another story, but all indicators show that our economy has been strong through oil's meteoric rise in price over the past 18 months. so far. bear in mind that the oil prices we see quoted are for oil futures, which implies that a large part of that (incredibly thick) market is speculative, so inevitably there's going to be a lag on the impact of oil prices as they adjust to their proper trading range.
Nah P***, I didn't explain it right. WalMart wasn't talking about their own energy costs, they were referring to customers coming in the store with less money to spend because of paying more for gas. They also came with an excuse last quarter, or the quarter before, talking about bad weather keeping customers home or something like that...prompting one analyst to come out and say "gimme a break, business should adjust to it and not blame it".
Also dude, I tried to reply to your PM last week but your PM's are off homie. It happened to everyone when the board got hacked I think, fix that so I can get back to you. Been flipping Q calls again, but switched to puts last week. Today was nice.
yeah, the wal mart thing did raise a few eyebrows, but the data is kind of pointing in a different direction. i trade treasury bonds, and that market is probably THE most sensitive market to inflation/interest rates out there .... and let me tell you that we've been long and fucking strong the past few sessions. all the shorts just got squeezed the fuck out. so my personal take on the oil/inflation thing from experience is that while it may come to pass, it hasn't yet.
man, you got me on the QQQQ shit. so out of my range. but that chart doesn't look like a long setup at all .. i'd watch that 38.5 level though. doesn't really mean anything in real terms other than market psychology is going to come in to play around there, but the indicators are on your side. if oil starts to sell off though i'd watch equities to make a reversal, at least for the short-term.
man, you got me on the QQQQ shit. so out of my range. but that chart doesn't look like a long setup at all .. i'd watch that 38.5 level though. doesn't really mean anything in real terms other than market psychology is going to come in to play around there, but the indicators are on your side. if oil starts to sell off though i'd watch equities to make a reversal, at least for the short-term.
Tech led that last rally, and should pop back tomorrow with the HPQ numbers. But still, with earnings season past us and September being the worst month historically, puts aren't a bad place to be until that chart hits the bottom part of the range, which it's getting close to. Putting up less than I did with the calls though, closed out my last contracts this afternoon and am not holding anything now.
call me alarmist but higher prices are the way of the future - whoever said that oil reserves are inexhaustible needs to pull their head out .. we are about to hit peak production after which it'll be downhill for oil supplies, and factor into that a couple of billion people in china and india aspiring to have the type of lifestyles many of us take for granted, meaning more industrialisation, consumption and cars, greater demand for oil, more pollution, and ever higher prices
wheres o'dub with his latest MPG figures on his pious or whatever the hybrid numbers are called !?!
call me alarmist but higher prices are the way of the future - whoever said that oil reserves are inexhaustible needs to pull their head out .. we are about to hit peak production after which it'll be downhill for oil supplies, and factor into that a couple of billion people in china and india aspiring to have the type of lifestyles many of us take for granted, meaning more industrialisation, consumption and cars, greater demand for oil, more pollution, and ever higher prices
trust, the oil market is on pins and needles every day. i don't envy those traders at all, even if they're making money now. it seems like $75/barrel is inevitable at some point, probably sooner than later. i'd wager that we'll see $75 before $55. if that happens the price of oil will have essentially doubled in two years, and the chances that a finite resource in such high demand will ever trade at its prior levels are slim.
this whole issue with CNOOC and unocal is pretty telling - the geopolitical importance of oil is huge right now, and we're absolutely making every effort to make sure that our leverage in that market doesn't decline as the economies in china and india push forward. i think some were hoping that siberia would provide some kind of relief from the current geopolitical order, but i heard somewhere that the average pump in russia produces about 77 barrels per day, as opposed to 1,000 to 2,000 in saudi. yikes.
call me alarmist but higher prices are the way of the future - whoever said that oil reserves are inexhaustible needs to pull their head out .. we are about to hit peak production after which it'll be downhill for oil supplies, and factor into that a couple of billion people in china and india aspiring to have the type of lifestyles many of us take for granted, meaning more industrialisation, consumption and cars, greater demand for oil, more pollution, and ever higher prices
trust, the oil market is on pins and needles every day. i don't envy those traders at all, even if they're making money now. it seems like $75/barrel is inevitable at some point, probably sooner than later. i'd wager that we'll see $75 before $55. if that happens the price of oil will have essentially doubled in two years, and the chances that a finite resource in such high demand will ever trade at its prior levels are slim.
this whole issue with CNOOC and unocal is pretty telling - the geopolitical importance of oil is huge right now, and we're absolutely making every effort to make sure that our leverage in that market doesn't decline as the economies in china and india push forward. i think some were hoping that siberia would provide some kind of relief from the current geopolitical order, but i heard somewhere that the average pump in russia produces about 77 barrels per day, as opposed to 1,000 to 2,000 in saudi. yikes.
so basically the cost of Gas will never actually go down it'll just continue to go higher and higher then?
Has all this affected automobile makers and electric cars?
so basically the cost of Gas will never actually go down it'll just continue to go higher and higher then?
Has all this affected automobile makers and electric cars?
i'm not going to make that prediction, but i wouldn't expect much relief any time soon.
as for the auto market, it hasn't been affected AT ALL by high oil prices OR the major recession in 2000/2001. why? 0% financing. the auto makers essentially became huge banks and made buying a car much more palatable to the average household. seriously, automobile sales have had stunning consistency in spite of other economic factors.
i would imagine, though, that people are going to start wondering whether they really want that dodge durango if gas is going to stay at around $2.50 a gallon. for some reason i don't think the potential permanency of this price shift has really hit home yet.
this whole issue with CNOOC and unocal is pretty telling - the geopolitical importance of oil is huge right now, and we're absolutely making every effort to make sure that our leverage in that market doesn't decline as the economies in china and india push forward. i think some were hoping that siberia would provide some kind of relief from the current geopolitical order, but i heard somewhere that the average pump in russia produces about 77 barrels per day, as opposed to 1,000 to 2,000 in saudi. yikes.
Which is why the US government has been tryin' to cosy up to the former Stans in the Soviet Union (i.e. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) in concert w/ a pipeline that runs to the Black Sea and its Russian ports via Afghanistan; some had thought that oil production reserves in those countries would be able to offset weanin' away from the Gulf states, but that belief has been undermined by output fallin' short of expectations w/ the exception of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (Azerbaijan is the other country in the Caspian Sea basin that has oil and gas reserves in the ground)...
i would imagine, though, that people are going to start wondering whether they really want that dodge durango if gas is going to stay at around $2.50 a gallon. for some reason i don't think the potential permanency of this price shift has really hit home yet.
It also goes beyond just fuel as well - e.g. production of plastic (ethylene and benzene, both crude oil derivatives): the very computer + monitor you're starin' @ right now... The implications are pretty vast and wide-rangin'...
I am telling you bio diesel is gonna be the next step... unlimited fuel resource, all they need is the refining infrastructure...
Even Gulf state countries such as the United Arab Emirates are runnin' out of oil and lookin' elsewhere, e.g. tourism, to bolster the domestic economy... It may not be melodramatic in sayin' that major conflicts that erupt in the future b/w countries may not be over territory/ideology, but the commodity of oil given its finite stock...
wow - crazy selloff in oil today. the gasoline inventories came in negative 5 million barrels, which sent it up to $66.50 a barrel .. but then it sold off $2.50 pretty much in a straight line down and has been floating around $64 for a while now. maybe this will signal some kind of short-term reversal .. who knows. but a lot of traders lost a lot of money today on that shit.
Comments
That sounds like it was formultaed by a tax accountant for the airlines.
"Hmmmmm..lets see, if gas goes up a penny, no one will fly, we'll have to raise ticket prices again, lower service (again)....etc etc
What up Aser! Yes hommie, moving to Tokyo Indefinitely. Plaese to holla when you will be in Tokyo. We will eat lots of ramen, drinks lots of sake and act a fool.
i know it sucks to see prices going up. but prices are going up on everything. there just aren't big ass signs on every corner showing you the prices are going up.
plus as far as i know the price of a gallon of gas is still let than a gallon of milk. (i'm not sure about this, milk does not do this body good, but substitute a loaf of bread etc.) seems more important to eat than to drive.
i'm with the peeps who are talking about alternative transportation. driving a few blocks to visit your homie is ridiculous. walk, ride a bike, take the bus, train, trolley.
actually we got a pretty robust (read: low) core CPI number today. but if i'm not mistaken prior numbers were adjusted up as well, so it kind of balances out. it's too early to tell, but the fears of oil prices driving inflation up may be exaggerated.
and sween - i'm not really sold on the wal mart excuse. their costs did rise, which probably had something to do with it, but you're talking about approx. $30 million in additional fuel costs to a company that makes about $75 billion per quarter - not that big of a deal. whether or not it's affected consumers' spending habits is another story, but all indicators show that our economy has been strong through oil's meteoric rise in price over the past 18 months. so far. bear in mind that the oil prices we see quoted are for oil futures, which implies that a large part of that (incredibly thick) market is speculative, so inevitably there's going to be a lag on the impact of oil prices as they adjust to their proper trading range.
my group is going to start up an energy trading team, but i don't trust that market at all. it's become so skittish because every day seems to make a new record high, and the geopolitical factors have become pretty prominent. this is probably only going to get worse as we approach peak oil. i would say that a fair price range for oil is $60-80 a barrel .... for a long, long time ... but then again, i don't know all that much about the market. i would be shocked to see it dip below $50 a barrel though, probably ever at this point.
the VLO call is probably a good one. that's a company that's going to be flirting with all-time highs for a while, so the options route is a stable one considering pullbacks, profit taking, etc., in a strong up trend. nobody knows where this shit is going to stop (recall the goldman report claiming that oil could reach $105 a barrel). but i'm so in the dark on this shit and worried about general paranoia in the energy market that i'd be inclined to scrap the idea of individual stocks and go with an ETF. there are some very nice oil services ETFs out there that are pretty much composed by market share. but as for VLO - i wouldn't at all be surprised to see that company outperform the sector. in fact, i'd expect it ...
energy by and large is hot as fuck. check out some coal stocks - BTU and ACI come to mind and they've been KILLING lately. outperforming oil stocks by a large margin, actually. but you've got to have some balls and some money to buy the highs and sell the highers like that. i'm just hoping that heating oil stays strong so that my stocks in that industry pull themselves out of the damn gutter.
but here's a question I think most people are wondering.
When it be on catastrophic crazy-ness steez and time to like to become familiar with a shotgun.
Nah P***, I didn't explain it right. WalMart wasn't talking about their own energy costs, they were referring to customers coming in the store with less money to spend because of paying more for gas. They also came with an excuse last quarter, or the quarter before, talking about bad weather keeping customers home or something like that...prompting one analyst to come out and say "gimme a break, business should adjust to it and not blame it".
Also dude, I tried to reply to your PM last week but your PM's are off homie. It happened to everyone when the board got hacked I think, fix that so I can get back to you. Been flipping Q calls again, but switched to puts last week. Today was nice.
yeah, the wal mart thing did raise a few eyebrows, but the data is kind of pointing in a different direction. i trade treasury bonds, and that market is probably THE most sensitive market to inflation/interest rates out there .... and let me tell you that we've been long and fucking strong the past few sessions. all the shorts just got squeezed the fuck out. so my personal take on the oil/inflation thing from experience is that while it may come to pass, it hasn't yet.
man, you got me on the QQQQ shit. so out of my range. but that chart doesn't look like a long setup at all .. i'd watch that 38.5 level though. doesn't really mean anything in real terms other than market psychology is going to come in to play around there, but the indicators are on your side. if oil starts to sell off though i'd watch equities to make a reversal, at least for the short-term.
Tech led that last rally, and should pop back tomorrow with the HPQ numbers. But still, with earnings season past us and September being the worst month historically, puts aren't a bad place to be until that chart hits the bottom part of the range, which it's getting close to. Putting up less than I did with the calls though, closed out my last contracts this afternoon and am not holding anything now.
PM later, gotta run.
wheres o'dub with his latest MPG figures on his pious or whatever the hybrid numbers are called !?!
trust, the oil market is on pins and needles every day. i don't envy those traders at all, even if they're making money now. it seems like $75/barrel is inevitable at some point, probably sooner than later. i'd wager that we'll see $75 before $55. if that happens the price of oil will have essentially doubled in two years, and the chances that a finite resource in such high demand will ever trade at its prior levels are slim.
this whole issue with CNOOC and unocal is pretty telling - the geopolitical importance of oil is huge right now, and we're absolutely making every effort to make sure that our leverage in that market doesn't decline as the economies in china and india push forward. i think some were hoping that siberia would provide some kind of relief from the current geopolitical order, but i heard somewhere that the average pump in russia produces about 77 barrels per day, as opposed to 1,000 to 2,000 in saudi. yikes.
so basically the cost of Gas will never actually go down it'll just continue to go higher and higher then?
Has all this affected automobile makers and electric cars?
i'm not going to make that prediction, but i wouldn't expect much relief any time soon.
as for the auto market, it hasn't been affected AT ALL by high oil prices OR the major recession in 2000/2001. why? 0% financing. the auto makers essentially became huge banks and made buying a car much more palatable to the average household. seriously, automobile sales have had stunning consistency in spite of other economic factors.
i would imagine, though, that people are going to start wondering whether they really want that dodge durango if gas is going to stay at around $2.50 a gallon. for some reason i don't think the potential permanency of this price shift has really hit home yet.
Which is why the US government has been tryin' to cosy up to the former Stans in the Soviet Union (i.e. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) in concert w/ a pipeline that runs to the Black Sea and its Russian ports via Afghanistan; some had thought that oil production reserves in those countries would be able to offset weanin' away from the Gulf states, but that belief has been undermined by output fallin' short of expectations w/ the exception of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (Azerbaijan is the other country in the Caspian Sea basin that has oil and gas reserves in the ground)...
It also goes beyond just fuel as well - e.g. production of plastic (ethylene and benzene, both crude oil derivatives): the very computer + monitor you're starin' @ right now... The implications are pretty vast and wide-rangin'...
Even Gulf state countries such as the United Arab Emirates are runnin' out of oil and lookin' elsewhere, e.g. tourism, to bolster the domestic economy... It may not be melodramatic in sayin' that major conflicts that erupt in the future b/w countries may not be over territory/ideology, but the commodity of oil given its finite stock...