I'd put my money on it being a bigger disaster for Iran.
You are exactly wrong. A military strike would galvanize Iran's unpopular regime, alienate many allies that are currently helping to isolate them, and marginalize the greens within the country. A couple of airstrikes will inflict minimal damage to the program.... I stand by my original post.
Tell that to the Iranians who get the bombs dropped on their heads.
I'm not rejecting this article out of hand, but this dude has been a consistent apologist for Iran over the years. He's famously claimed Ahmadinejad doesn't wish Israel any harm.
Juan Cole was maybe my favorite undergraduate professor. His class on US involvement in Middle East conflicts was epic. Very well put together and logically put forward. I'm at work and don't feel like finding the link right now, but I remember reading one of his blog posts which he argued that it didn't logically make sense for Iran to attack Israel or do them "any harm". I don't think he was specifically talking about Ahmadinejad, just the state as a whole. Ahmadinejad is nuts and has said stuff against Israel obviously, but he doesn't have any real power in that country.
I'm not rejecting this article out of hand, but this dude has been a consistent apologist for Iran over the years. He's famously claimed Ahmadinejad doesn't wish Israel any harm.
Juan Cole was maybe my favorite undergraduate professor. His class on US involvement in Middle East conflicts was epic. Very well put together and logically put forward. I'm at work and don't feel like finding the link right now, but I remember reading one of his blog posts which he argued that it didn't logically make sense for Iran to attack Israel or do them "any harm". I don't think he was specifically talking about Ahmadinejad, just the state as a whole. Ahmadinejad is nuts and has said stuff against Israel obviously, but he doesn't have any real power in that country.
...or so Juan Cole seems to think. Either way it doesn't exactly make you come off as an Iran expert when you refer to opposition to Ahmadinejad being merely a result of his "quirky personality and colorful gaffes!"
Have Iran even been asked to sign up to some non-proliferation treaty? Or is it just assumed that Ahmendidhejihad would just cackle and rub his hands together?
The big problem is that the US lied about WMD in Iraq. Until Iran either admits they have a bomb, or Hans Blix sees one, I won't believe shit that comes from hawks in the US or Israel.
I won't believe it until they use them and kill a few hundred thousand people.
I was gonna say.
Duderonomy: Is that srsly your threshold? Iran either has to admit they have nukes (!) or the UN (!) has to declare they do? Anything short of this and no way Iran is holding? Like, REALLY really?
Have Iran even been asked to sign up to some non-proliferation treaty? Or is it just assumed that Ahmendidhejihad would just cackle and rub his hands together?
The big problem is that the US lied about WMD in Iraq. Until Iran either admits they have a bomb, or Hans Blix sees one, I won't believe shit that comes from hawks in the US or Israel.
I won't believe it until they use them and kill a few hundred thousand people.
I was gonna say.
Duderonomy: Is that srsly your threshold? Iran either has to admit they have nukes (!) or the UN (!) has to declare they do? Anything short of this and no way Iran is holding? Like, REALLY really?
No, I believe that they may be developing them, but I'm not taking anything as gospel from the boy-who-cried-wolf.
Still think a peaceful resolution can be found, but certain parties may not want that.
Just like Iraq.
Have Iran even been asked to sign up to some non-proliferation treaty? Or is it just assumed that Ahmendidhejihad would just cackle and rub his hands together?
The big problem is that the US lied about WMD in Iraq. Until Iran either admits they have a bomb, or Hans Blix sees one, I won't believe shit that comes from hawks in the US or Israel.
I won't believe it until they use them and kill a few hundred thousand people.
I was gonna say.
Duderonomy: Is that srsly your threshold? Iran either has to admit they have nukes (!) or the UN (!) has to declare they do? Anything short of this and no way Iran is holding? Like, REALLY really?
The ostensible goal is to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes. There's no point in attacking once they have them.
Maybe the best way to fight Iran is to let them have the bomb... chances are they'll blow themselves to hell with it. Remember their gloriously ill-fated Bangkok terror plot from a few months back?
"A bungling Iranian bomber blew off his own legs when he hurled a grenade at Thai police outside a Bangkok school - which bounced off a tree and then exploded at his feet.
A bizarre sequence of explosions in the capital of Bangkok started this morning when a stash of explosives blew off the roof of a house occupied by three Iranians.
Two of the men quickly ran away while Saeid Moradi, who was seriously wounded, staggered out and tried to wave down a taxi.
Covered in blood, the driver refused to take him, and so he hurled a grenade at the vehicle. When police arrived on the scene he then tried to throw another at officers - but it bounced off a tree, landed at his feet, and blew off his legs."
Damn, I thought this was going to be a Flock Of Seagulls thread.
Let posterity record that this should have read "Damn, I thought this was going to be a A Flock Of Seagulls thread"
Carry on.
And let us correct the above to "...to be an A Flock Of Seagulls thread"
That is all.
Have Iran even been asked to sign up to some non-proliferation treaty? Or is it just assumed that Ahmendidhejihad would just cackle and rub his hands together?
To make myself perfectly redundant, I said earlier that the Shah signed the NPT, but Iran considers the Shah to be an illegitimate ruler, so why honor his decisions.
To make myself perfectly redundant, I said earlier that the Shah signed the NPT, but Iran considers the Shah to be an illegitimate ruler, so why honor his decisions.
Because they already have been? The Islamic regime has never said that they aren't members of the NPT. In fact, they have maintained the opposite (that they are members) since Day 1 of this dispute.
Further, if the regime felt that the Shah's decision on the NPT was illegitmate, they could have removed themselves from the treaty at any time since 1979. They haven't. Iran is a member of the NPT. They must abide by its terms.
Comments
Damn....that looks like a 52" Vertical.
I'm betting that this video makes Ahmendidhejihad cackle and rub his hands together!
Tell that to the Iranians who get the bombs dropped on their heads.
Juan Cole was maybe my favorite undergraduate professor. His class on US involvement in Middle East conflicts was epic. Very well put together and logically put forward. I'm at work and don't feel like finding the link right now, but I remember reading one of his blog posts which he argued that it didn't logically make sense for Iran to attack Israel or do them "any harm". I don't think he was specifically talking about Ahmadinejad, just the state as a whole. Ahmadinejad is nuts and has said stuff against Israel obviously, but he doesn't have any real power in that country.
...or so Juan Cole seems to think. Either way it doesn't exactly make you come off as an Iran expert when you refer to opposition to Ahmadinejad being merely a result of his "quirky personality and colorful gaffes!"
I was gonna say.
Duderonomy: Is that srsly your threshold? Iran either has to admit they have nukes (!) or the UN (!) has to declare they do? Anything short of this and no way Iran is holding? Like, REALLY really?
No, I believe that they may be developing them, but I'm not taking anything as gospel from the boy-who-cried-wolf.
Still think a peaceful resolution can be found, but certain parties may not want that.
Just like Iraq.
The ostensible goal is to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes. There's no point in attacking once they have them.
"A bungling Iranian bomber blew off his own legs when he hurled a grenade at Thai police outside a Bangkok school - which bounced off a tree and then exploded at his feet.
A bizarre sequence of explosions in the capital of Bangkok started this morning when a stash of explosives blew off the roof of a house occupied by three Iranians.
Two of the men quickly ran away while Saeid Moradi, who was seriously wounded, staggered out and tried to wave down a taxi.
Covered in blood, the driver refused to take him, and so he hurled a grenade at the vehicle. When police arrived on the scene he then tried to throw another at officers - but it bounced off a tree, landed at his feet, and blew off his legs."
Because they already have been? The Islamic regime has never said that they aren't members of the NPT. In fact, they have maintained the opposite (that they are members) since Day 1 of this dispute.
Further, if the regime felt that the Shah's decision on the NPT was illegitmate, they could have removed themselves from the treaty at any time since 1979. They haven't. Iran is a member of the NPT. They must abide by its terms.