SWINE FLU PANDEMIC
NateBizzo
2,328 Posts
This shit scares the hell out of me.
NateBizzo
2,328 Posts
Comments
If nothing else, this will hopefully be very useful to predicting the path and virulence of other future pandemics.
Dont Be Soff.
(eventually)
Papers were full of how it was the end of the world. All the birds were going to be whipped out etc etc.
Listening to the news is probably more of a risk to your health, than this latest nonsense.
The outbreak is real even if it doesn't portend the end of the world.
Sorry I should have worded it better, it's just the news media annoys me.
This shit does scare me, but I think its also almost certainly hyped up by the media. Outbreaks sell papers...
yet.
Mad Cow and Auto Tune.
CDC said there is no reason to panic, but they do expect it to get worse.
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm
now you know!!!
i will see your sausage thread and raise you one swine flu!
Dude we all know you don't leave your hippie music compound.
You have not one but 2 Orgasmotrons in your own home???? Deep!
8 / 8,274,527 (city proper population, not factoring in commuters, suburbanites, etc.) =
.000000966822635
of the population of the city, or roughly one in one million.
So unless it starts spreading like crazy, I think you are safe for the moment.
Well if you want to do pointless math, we can also say that a full TWO THIRDS of all US swine flu cases happen within a couple miles of my home.
!!!!!
Anyway, I'm on the subway every morning packed like sardines with people breathing on me. Pandemics in general scare me, but if you want my opinion on whether this is probably overblown, see my comments quoted above. The point is no one really knows, yet..
Pointless math... not really. Just perspective.
2/3rds is not as good, as it is proportional. Guess what? I am in the wealthiest 1 percent of people. In my house. Of course, 2 of the people in my house are under 10 years old...
And I agree, no one really knows yet. My point was just that unless it's ridiculously contagious (like Outbreak monkey style) the instance of infection is so ridiculously small (and mortality rate nonexistant) that it's probably not a big deal.
But yes, you could wrap yourself in antiseptic and bubble wrap just in case.
I just received an email from him, here are some key facts:
- It's called "swine flu" but it's nothing to do with pigs anymore - it's now a human flu. Most of the people infected haven't been near pigs.[/b]
- Because it has hit the US the media will go nuts over it, but it's probably not a major problem unless there's deaths in America.
- The term "public health emergency of international concern" (PHEIC) sounds full on, but it's mainly a legal term[/b] so signatories to the International Health Regulations are able to put the right border controls in place. i.e. if it's a PHEIC, we can stop planes on the tarmac.[/b]
- The WHO have decided to declare swine flu a PHEIC but have chosen not to raise the alert level from 3 to 4.
- If you hear the WHO has declared a pandemic stage 4, that's going to be a hassle. The scale is out of six, we have been at stage three or equiv since at least 2004 cause of bird flu (limited human to human transmission), but stage 4 means increased human to human transmission and we'll have to start border control at the airports. Means a lot of cost/hassle to world transport and trade.[/b]
- If it hits "stage 5" that's deep shit, but it'll be obvious by then. Grab your shotgun and get in the bunker.
- Bird flu is still probably the prime suspect (Egypt/Indonesia) for a future pandemic.
The flu normally jumps from bird to pig to human, but the swine flu is direct from pig to human. It's not unusual at all for pig to human flu but it's too early to tell what this one is like.[/b]
H1N1 doesn't really mean much - it's a combination of 1-8 for both H and N, which is the mutations on the surface of the virus. There's so many combinations of both (and flus come in type A, B and C (although C is never pandemic)) so that's why last year's vaccine won't work against next year's flu.
The main thing is that it's jumped from animal to person so no-one in the world has built up a natural immunity to it yet. That's also why bird flu is so bad. Also, this swine flu is infecting a lot of 25-45 year olds which is a really bad sign.[/b]
Back in 1918 it (probably) started from a bird flu, but once a lot of people got sick they built up immunity, so the virus that killed loads of people ended up being just one of the "normal" strains of flu circulating for following years.
Good idea to still get the flu vaccine but it won't protect against this one[/b] - the vaccine is made from the WHO's guess about the top three flu's circulating around the world each year, and this one is not in the mix. Another problem could be that this year was a pretty mild one for flu in the US so people may be more susceptible.
I watched every inch of a local high school in Queen, New York getting scrubbed down on some news clips last night. About 50 students have it, as reported by several news sources I watched last night.
My friend is a teacher at this high school, and he says it is definitely more like 300.
Only one news source (I think it was NY1) actually reported that there might be about 300 infected last night.