So who won Texas?

kidinquisitive

I'd kind of like to know, ya know? The media, never much for nuances, has enthusiastically run with the story that Hillary won a clear victory there. From what I'm able to cobble together, actual facts seems quite a bit murkier. They've still only counted 40 percent of the caucus results (did they just get bored and stop?). From Dallas Morning News: With about 40 percent of precincts reporting Thursday, Mr. Obama had about 55 percent of the precinct delegates to Mrs. Clinton???s 45 percent. If that holds up through the rest of the counting and the next several steps, he would take 37 of the delegates up for grabs, and 30 would go to Mrs. Clinton.If that does hold up, and the primary results also hold up, won't that give Obama 3 more delegates overall than Clinton? And doesn't that mean that Clinton actually lost Texas? Also, when are we going to see some substantiation or evidence that Obama supporters were locking Clinton supporters out of the caucuses, as has been claimed?

luck

The terms "winning" and "losing," as they apply to delegate-based primaries and caucuses, are reductive newspaper terms. In the general election, these terms make a bit more sense. But if my math holds up, Obama should actually take about a 2-4 delegate lead in Texas due to their "Two-Step" system. Look at New Hampshire for another example of this. Hillary is going to have to pull about 60% of the forthcoming states after the several token wins Obama will garner in, say, Wyoming and North Carolina.

And the "lockout" talk is pure political posturing. You hear talk of this in Chicago all the time. Same old

luck

I read this in an RCP comment section, and it makes obvious sense if entirely true: As we all know, neither candidate will likely garner the 2,024 total delegates necesary to clinch the nomination before the superdelegates come into play. But this is especially the case because the Democratic National Convention did not actually remove the Florida and Michigan delegates (156 and 210, respectively) from the initial 4,047 delegate total. If the 366 delegates were evenly divided between the two candidates - resulting in 183 each - or altogether subtracted from the 4,047, then the end would be so much closer for Obama that it probably would be a question of when and not if.