When will the economy get back to normal?
PATX
2,820 Posts
I'm thinking never. 
PATX
2,820 Posts
Comments
We weren't living "normal" to begin with, and that was the exact problem.
Haha, so was I!
I hate all these mofos with all this debt and shit. I am proud to say I know how to save money, and only purchase what I can afford.
So you don't have student loan debt?
I'm agreeing.
We got rid of our debt a long time ago (which is why I can stay home with my sons now). We're not flush, but no one is coming after us for money either.
A lot of the "wealth" prior to the crash was bullshit, and that bullshit ain't coming back.
Trying to find the floor right now is becoming more and more difficult. Some people say we should just pull the trigger, raise interest rates and use only limited Tax Payer funds, thus getting us to a 'floor' quicker. There is some logic in that, but a lot of people will get hurt in the interim.
The current slow bleed process seems a bit less painful, but may just be a drawn out process that ultimately leads us to our death. And all the while we take in a lot of debt in the process (i.e. we are going to have to sell California to China soon as some sort of collateral).
Barring a huge break in technology, I don't see anything remotely resembling a quick fix. We borrowed too much and got too greedy. The natural retraction back to normal (whatever that is) will take time.
I know where you work, that's irrelevant.
This is the shit that can go away, never to return...
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Gordon Brown's use of the word 'depression' was a slip of the tongue, says No 10
Tories query prime minister's description of economic crisis
Thats what I am saying.
I am not counting student debt as ignorant spending and debt.
But if you must know the details of my personal life, I worked my ass off during school, and paid my state school tuition with two jobs, semester by semester.
How does anyone??? Shit, the top economists in both the current and former administrations really are scratching their head about when this recession will end.
and please do tell what 'crap' i have spouted.
i am pretty much your typical pro-capitalist, semi-pessimistic/realistic, but try to look out of the 'common man' type of dude. not sure how my economic beliefs fall under crap-worthy.
and to answer your question...with rates hovering near zero there really isn't anyway to go but up. So the question is, does the fed raise rates quick or fast? if fast, they likely make life difficult for some business, but also force the hand for banks to possibly start lending again. either that or fed continues to buy tbills and lower their value.
Quantitative easing from Marketplace on Vimeo.
my jab at China/California was an obvious joke...
as for why I say Q409 or 2010, most economists suggest that the stimulus plan most likely to go through would take several months to start going into fruition. Obama's tax cuts wouldn't really go into effect until 2010 and even shovel ready jobs need a few months to work through.
But all of this are big 'what ifs'.
Rampant Development = Good! Housing = Up! Stock market = Go Long!
And now here we are...
Ah...I think you offered your personal info without anyone asking, but thanks for sharing.
Sucks....
1 out or 3 perhaps. I would suggest that going long on the market is the only idea I have ever favored in this public forum. And if I had money I would probably look to dip into the market this year as a lot of decent stocks are getting battered on account of macro concerns.
I do promote increase building of housing, but pretty much solely in NYC where i would like to see more supply so my rent could go down or perhaps i could buy an apartment and a semi-reasonable price.
And i am a fan of development, but never to the extent where persons, companies or countries should leverage themselves with more debt than they can handle.
anyway...you ask an open-ended question on a public forum, i'll give you my response. i am fairly certain you can adjust your settings to ignore me if you find my responses that indignant.
At my job, we like to play a little game called "Let's find some good news." Suffice to say, it's a short one.
Pretty much any indicator of the health of the economy is going down, in many cases at alarming rates. Economics don't know what to do and people at the Fed and Treasury are literally making it up as they go along.
Folks are only now really starting to save their money, ironically when the economy really needs people to spend -- and with prices actually reflecting that need, unlike, say, when Bush told us to "Go shopping!" after Sept. 11.
We don't need to build more cinder block houses to bring down your rent. It was the speculative bubble that pushed rents up 300% in a decade in N Brooklyn. I said in Jan 07 that over investment is worse than under investment and that those 40 story tower blocks would never get built. Think they got 3 out of 16+ up before the free money ran out. Taxpayers paid for most of the ground work.
In which other cities around the world is it easy for young people to own apartments that weren't passed down from family? Why should it be any different in NYC? What's the reasoning for that luxury? and surely if more housing were then built, there would be a greater number of people who would qualify for a mortgage and that would create more demand, leading to.... you know where. Would you still buy if you knew that the value would decrease or never change at all (say through govt regulation)?
Thank you for your time. The only person I have on ignore is BSides for some reason I can't figure out. Probably jpeg related.
Housing: Where I live housing prices were doubling every 2-5 years. Housing prices have not dropped here as much as else where. I think they will continue to drop for the next 4-5 years. Simple put, houses are overpriced here.
Wall street: "Smart guys" have created a bunch of "investment instruments" out of credit card debt and auto debt. These are just like all those derivatives/securities that failed last fall. These also will fail and cause more havoc.
Service & retail: Our economy is based not on making things but on buying things. It's just a stupid model and I hope it never comes back.
Good news: The boom in the late 1800s was based on railroad. Then we had a steel/manufacturing boom. Then a post war industrial boom. Computers. Internet. Energy.
There will be another boom in the next 4 years. My guess is it will be centered around a new energy source/energy breakthrough.
Or I might be wrong about everything. I hope everyone had a great Groundhog Day, the economist's favorite holiday.
FUNK 45s!!!!!!!!!!!! MaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADDDDDD ENERGY
Then someone will ghost bump this thread.
Hey,
"Greed is a helluva drug."
People can concoct a million and one ways to justify spending beyond their means. Yeah sure, mortgage companies "made" people go into Adjustable-Rate Mortgage loans to buy houses they couldn't afford. Oh, if only those bad banks didn't twist their arms; yet, didn't the buyer think that if they only make $70,000 a year, they can't afford a $600,000 house. More generally, isn't it stupid to base a large portion of our economy on credit? GTFOOHWTBS!!! Hopefully, these rough economic times will teach people to be frugal and live within their means. But then again, Americans have short memories and avarice trumps reason anyway.
Peace,
Big Stacks from Kakalak
Can a capitalist economy grow in any meaningful way if society doesn't spend at least a little frivalously? The impression I get is that a saving society, one that tries to make shit last as long as possible before replacing and doesn't get caught up in consumption competition...those economies are fucked.
I'm assuming this is wrong but maybe Stacks or someone else can explain why.