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My Dem Primary Prediction

sabadabadasabadabada 5,966 Posts
edited March 2008 in Strut Central
My prediction is that KVH abandoned ship too early and should have stuck to his guns. Granted, I understand how hard it must have been to be the only Hillary supporter, but I think after today we are going to see a shift towards Hillary in the run up to Pennsylvania. Don't count her out.
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  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    I agree.

    Hillary will be the nominee.
  • kitchenknightkitchenknight 4,922 Posts
    I agree.

    Hillary will be the nominee.

    Don't know about that, but she's certainly going to win Ohio.
  • edpowersedpowers 4,437 Posts
    she's certainly going to win Ohio.

    and Texas.
  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    I agree.

    Hillary will be the nominee.

    Don't know about that, but she's certainly going to win Ohio.

    She will win Ohio, and Texas - both more convincingly than polls indicate.

    She will win substantially in Rhode Island, and lose in Vermont.

    She will take Pennsylvania by 10 points or more... she will do very well in Puerto Rico.


    By the time the dust has settled she will have a slight lead in the popular vote and be within the margin of error for delegates. Meanwhile, the press will backlash against Obama and superdelegates will switch sides again. Remember, this is the Democratic Party we're talking about here.

    Clinton will be the nominee, and will loose to McCain in the general election*.

    You heard it here first.













    *unless she gets Obama to take VP. Then all bets are off.
  • FatbackFatback 6,746 Posts
    I can't watch coverage of this anymore, but I did catch her on TDS last night. I agree with how they called her out on her Debbie Downer approach. It's also funny that people are giving her all these props because she 's been self-effacing recently (i.e., SNL, TDS). I find her self-effacing persona about as convincing as her 10 other ones she's tried, and about as charming as when GWB makes fun of his own dumbassness.

    But here's the thing...her recent stump speeches that try to re-frame Obama's message as hopeless , naive and empty ("celestial choirs" GTFOH) is WAY lower than I expected her to go. If the Dems fall for that bullshit and jump to her ship now, I'd feel better voting GOP as a protest vote.
  • Jonny_PaycheckJonny_Paycheck 17,825 Posts
    Get ready to vote McCain, Frank.

    Wish it weren't true.
  • FatbackFatback 6,746 Posts
    I agree.

    Hillary will be the nominee.

    Don't know about that, but she's certainly going to win Ohio.

    She will win Ohio, and Texas - both more convincingly than polls indicate.

    She will win substantially in Rhode Island, and lose in Vermont.

    She will take Pennsylvania by 10 points or more... she will do very well in Puerto Rico.


    By the time the dust has settled she will have a slight lead in the popular vote and be within the margin of error for delegates. Meanwhile, the press will backlash against Obama and superdelegates will switch sides again. Remember, this is the Democratic Party we're talking about here.

    Clinton will be the nominee, and will loose to McCain in the general election*.

    You heard it here first.













    *unless she gets Obama to take VP. Then all bets are off.

    Are you starting a pool? I'm in.

    Obama Takes TX and VT.

    Clinton takes OH and RI.

    Obama takes PA and shuts her down.

    I can't tip in on the general yet. I need to see the VPs.
  • RockadelicRockadelic Out Digging 13,993 Posts
    Get ready to vote McCain, Frank.

    Wish it weren't true.

  • jleejlee 1,539 Posts
    Remember, this is the Democratic Party we're talking about here.



    i had much more confidence in predicting the Superbowl winner than i do in this race, exactly for the reason stated above.
  • RockadelicRockadelic Out Digging 13,993 Posts

    Clinton will be the nominee, and will loose to McCain in the general election*.

    You heard it here about 60 days ago[/b] .



  • VitaminVitamin 631 Posts
    Disagree. Not only is the country experiencing something like an Obamanon, but Hillary is rightfully not trusted by her party on the most important issue of 2008, the war. I think Hillary will sprout wings and talons and scream for the blood of Iranian terrorists if she is the nominee, I tend to look for this characteristic in my future presidents. But I am not a Democrat in 2008. I think it would be a crime if we pulled out of Iraq prematurely; I don't have a problem with the CIA having some latitude when they interrogate senior terrorists; and all things being equal I am more concerned about the prospect of sleeper cells in America than over-stretch from the NSA. It's not to say that I condone all of these things, it's just that politics is about priorities and overall I see the basket of policies Bush has adopted to prosecute the war against Islamic supremacists as imperfect and understandable, not as war crimes. On all of those issues, despite recent panders, Hillary is closer to me than the average Democratic voter. So you have this Margaret Thatcher figure running like she was Shirley Chisolm. It's fraudulent and I have to believe that Democratic primary voters understand this. So I predict Texas and Ohio democrats will not defraud their party and pull the lever for the vessel of their collective aspirations, sending the following message to Hillary Rodham Clinton: No You Can't.
  • RockadelicRockadelic Out Digging 13,993 Posts
    i had much more confidence in predicting the Superbowl winner than i do in this race, exactly for the reason stated above.

    Who did you pick??
  • jleejlee 1,539 Posts
    i had much more confidence in predicting the Superbowl winner than i do in this race, exactly for the reason stated above.

    Who did you pick??

    the Giants.

    point being of course, that it was easier to see a huge upset in that game than it is is trying to figure out who will win the Dem nod. I honestly have no idea anymore.
  • keithvanhornkeithvanhorn 3,855 Posts
    My prediction is that KVH abandoned ship too early and should have stuck to his guns. Granted, I understand how hard it must have been to be the only Hillary supporter, but I think after today we are going to see a shift towards Hillary in the run up to Pennsylvania. Don't count her out.

    i never said i wouldn't vote for her in PA, assuming she is still in the race, but imo, she will drop out before April.

    where do you see a shift towards hillary? perhaps the media's overkill of hillary bashing is no longer the ratings getter that it was when she led, or was at least a candidate with a chance at winning. now that she is the extreme long shot it makes a more interesting story for the media to still act like this thing is competitive. its not. she doesn't have the numbers, the money or the support.
  • FatbackFatback 6,746 Posts
    So you have this Margaret Thatcher figure running like she was Shirley Chisolm.

  • sabadabadasabadabada 5,966 Posts
    My prediction is that KVH abandoned ship too early and should have stuck to his guns. Granted, I understand how hard it must have been to be the only Hillary supporter, but I think after today we are going to see a shift towards Hillary in the run up to Pennsylvania. Don't count her out.

    i never said i wouldn't vote for her in PA, assuming she is still in the race, but imo, she will drop out before April.

    where do you see a shift towards hillary? perhaps the media's overkill of hillary bashing is no longer the ratings getter that it was when she led, or was at least a candidate with a chance at winning. now that she is the extreme long shot it makes a more interesting story for the media to still act like this thing is competitive. its not. she doesn't have the numbers, the money or the support.

    I think the mask is finally coming off Obama. He has made some major fumbles in the past few days with the way he has handled the Rezko land deal, Canada/Nafta issues, his weak response to Farrakhan's endorsement, he and his wifes lack of patriotism (in the overt sense that most people can relate to, the "speaking truth to power" patriotism doesnt cut it in the Heartland), his poor performance in last nights press conference. I think democrats are finally wizening up and realizing that there isn't much there except a regular, albeit gifted, Chicago poll with a nice smile and a generic message of change.
  • roistoroisto 879 Posts
    It's not to say that I condone all of these things, it's just that politics is about priorities and overall I see the basket of policies Bush has adopted to prosecute the war against Islamic supremacists as imperfect and understandable[/b], not as war crimes.

    Whoa. That's pretty cynical.
  • FatbackFatback 6,746 Posts
    I think the mask is finally coming off Obama. He has made some major fumbles in the past few days with the way he has handled the Rezko land deal, Canada/Nafta issues, his weak response to Farrakhan's endorsement, he and his wifes lack of patriotism (in the overt sense that most people can relate to, the "speaking truth to power" patriotism doesnt cut it in the Heartland), his poor performance in last nights press conference. I think democrats are finally wizening up and realizing that there isn't much there except a regular, albeit gifted, Chicago poll with a nice smile and a generic message of change.

    ^^^Short bus riding revealed.
  • sabadabadasabadabada 5,966 Posts
    I think the mask is finally coming off Obama. He has made some major fumbles in the past few days with the way he has handled the Rezko land deal, Canada/Nafta issues, his weak response to Farrakhan's endorsement, he and his wifes lack of patriotism (in the overt sense that most people can relate to, the "speaking truth to power" patriotism doesnt cut it in the Heartland), his poor performance in last nights press conference. I think democrats are finally wizening up and realizing that there isn't much there except a regular, albeit gifted, Chicago poll with a nice smile and a generic message of change.

    ^^^Short bus riding revealed.

    you need to realize that they are running for president of the United States (including the 280,000,000 people that don't live in the Bay area) and not president of the Berkeley Chapter of GLAD. - so i guess your job is safe.
  • FatbackFatback 6,746 Posts
    I think the mask is finally coming off Obama. He has made some major fumbles in the past few days with the way he has handled the Rezko land deal, Canada/Nafta issues, his weak response to Farrakhan's endorsement, he and his wifes lack of patriotism (in the overt sense that most people can relate to, the "speaking truth to power" patriotism doesnt cut it in the Heartland), his poor performance in last nights press conference. I think democrats are finally wizening up and realizing that there isn't much there except a regular, albeit gifted, Chicago poll with a nice smile and a generic message of change.

    ^^^Short bus riding revealed.

    you need to realize that they are running for president of the United States (including the 280,000,000 people that don't live in the Bay area) and not president of the Berkeley Chapter of GLAD. - so i guess your job is safe.

    How old are you? Seriously.
  • fishmongerfunkfishmongerfunk 4,154 Posts
    hey, it maybe looks like the fawning press corps is actually starting to ask obama some real questions. the article describes his reaction as that of a man who had just been bitten by his own dog.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/03/AR2008030302769_pf.html

    why has it taken this long?
  • GrandfatherGrandfather 2,303 Posts
    What is up with Hilary's McCain endorsement. Does she really think that will help the Democrats chances?

  • VitaminVitamin 631 Posts
    hey, it maybe looks like the fawning press corps is actually starting to ask obama some real questions. the article describes his reaction as that of a man who had just been bitten by his own dog.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/03/AR2008030302769_pf.html

    why has it taken this long?


    classic milbank. great piece
  • deejdeej 5,125 Posts
    she's certainly going to win Ohio.

    and Texas.
    no. she may squeak by w/ the popular vote but delegates? not gonna happen
  • deejdeej 5,125 Posts
    My prediction is that KVH abandoned ship too early and should have stuck to his guns. Granted, I understand how hard it must have been to be the only Hillary supporter, but I think after today we are going to see a shift towards Hillary in the run up to Pennsylvania. Don't count her out.

    i never said i wouldn't vote for her in PA, assuming she is still in the race, but imo, she will drop out before April.

    where do you see a shift towards hillary? perhaps the media's overkill of hillary bashing is no longer the ratings getter that it was when she led, or was at least a candidate with a chance at winning. now that she is the extreme long shot it makes a more interesting story for the media to still act like this thing is competitive. its not. she doesn't have the numbers, the money or the support.

    I think the mask is finally coming off Obama. He has made some major fumbles in the past few days with the way he has handled the Rezko land deal
    ??? that didnt happen in the last few days dude, that happened a couple years ago. it didnt get revealed in the past few days either - the trial for an entirely unrelated corruption charge of rezko is just kicking in now

    whats happened in the last few days is the media frame has become more clinton friendly - the media is buying 'the media gives obama a free ride' whether its true or not
  • deejdeej 5,125 Posts
    I think democrats are finally wizening up and realizing that there isn't much there except a regular, albeit gifted, Chicago poll with a nice smile and a generic message of change.
    i think you're dreaming
  • deejdeej 5,125 Posts
    best case scenario for hillary still has her behind in delegates at the end of the day today. The question is - by how many. And what the difference needs to be for her to hang on to her superdelegates, or if they will continue to bail when Obama wins wyoming and mississippi
  • GenePontecorvoGenePontecorvo 5,612 Posts
    You guys are depressing me. And I was already salty cos the lines were too long for me to stop and vote. DAMMIT.
  • deejdeej 5,125 Posts
    hey, it maybe looks like the fawning press corps is actually starting to ask obama some real questions. the article describes his reaction as that of a man who had just been bitten by his own dog.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/03/AR2008030302769_pf.html

    why has it taken this long?


    classic milbank. great piece
    this is a terrible piece. you can watch the press interview on halperin's page - milbank is totally warping the events to push his narrative. all that happened is the press asked obama a bunch of questions they've already asked him and he's already answered re: rezko, plus got him on the defensive about the nafta thing - which is a short term problem vs. hillary's ACTUAL ENDORSEMENT of NAFTA. Even Ohioans recognize that Hillary is worse on NAFTA than obama is according to polling
  • deejdeej 5,125 Posts
    You guys are depressing me. And I was already salty cos the lines were too long for me to stop and vote. DAMMIT.
    go vote dude

    im hoping the pro-hillary narrative that's showed up in the last few days will help to spur obama GOTV efforts
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