as the lone supporter of hillary....
keithvanhorn
3,855 Posts
i'm officially done defending her. no mo' posts. its been great, but its game over and now i gotta ride for the first presidential candidate with a jump shot since bill bradley.
Comments
Is this because you're tired of arguing or because you think it's over?
no, i called the election a few weeks ago. i'm done defending her because, at this point, staying in the race will only hurt the cause. so its more like she has overstayed her welcome. a few weeks ago she was up 20 points in texas and ohio, now she's probably gonna lose both states. sinking ship. lets keep it movin'.
I've been listening to a lot of local(as opposed to National) talk radio this week and have been pretty shocked by a couple of things.
1) The number of people who claimed to be Conservative and/or Republican who say they will vote for Obama.
and
2) The number of callers, all female, who said they supported Hillary for the nomination but will vote for McCain in November. For the most part they cited experience. There were two such calls yesterday between 5:00pm and 6:00pm on station KLIF in case they have archives and someone wants to hear this for themselves.
To women, especially older, working women... experience is an issue. It's a cultural, psycho-social thing. Comfort, safety, think of the kids, etc. Maternal instinct.
I hope this doesn't come off as sexist, but it's a theory and opinion I've seen repeated often.
idiots. are any of these candidates "experienced"? such an arbitrary term with respect to who is left. i'm okay with romney using it to say - hey, at least i've run a state (as did george w bush!). but to say you are a more experienced senator.....
the "experience" argument, if made by mccain, is code language for "i'm old". lets see how far that gets him.
Rock, I'm surprised that you haven't heard more of this. I hear it almost daily. From what I hear/overhear, they seem to hate McCain with so much passion that they're willing to crossover just to sink him. I've even heard one of my co-workers report to have voted Obama in early voting just out of hate of McCain/Clinton.
Texas is an entirely different animal than the rest of the country. I think people will be surprised the evening of the 4th.
You think it might also have something to do with their desire to see a female president in their lifetimes (65+ up, Hillary's last bastion of support) as well?
That's not really that surprising. The Bush administration has pissed off a lot of traditional conservatives because Bush has been about as unconservative as it gets. Government is bigger than ever and fiscal responsibility wasn't ever even a thought in his mind. Republicans in general I think see that the Bush administration has hurt the cause of Republicans in general, and they realize that the Iraq war is likely a quagmire whose stench will stick to Republicans for a long time to come.
McCain, simply, isn't somebody most conservatives like. In the past couple years since he decided to run for President, McCain has done a lot to pander to the Republican base, particularly the religious right and the evangelicals, but that just makes him look like a fraud to the religious people and makes him a lot less palatable to the more centrist Republicans. When McCain was hanging out with Jerry Falwell and making appearances at Liberty University I think that turned a lot of people off. McCain was a guy I always liked because he stood up for what he believed in and he didn't just follow the party line on every issue. Then he decided to run for president and suddenly he was all about pandering to the base and I found that to be a huge turnoff. I think it was the worst of both worlds for him because he looks like he's willing to do whatever it takes to become president, and by doing so makes himself less appealing to a huge swath of voters at once. I think most true conservatives don't trust the guy based on his centrist past, and people like me who might've considered voting for him previously don't trust him now that he's pandering to the religious right. It's a double-edged sword for McCain.
You add onto that the debacle of the Iraq war and the fact that McCain not only doesn't see a timetable of any sort for a troop withdrawal but instead has mentioned having troops in Iraq for a hundred or even 10,000 years, and I think he's just doing everything to make sure he won't win the popular vote in a general election. The reason so many Republicans want Hillary to be the Democrat nominee is that Republicans still have a huge hatred of the Clintons, so at least if Hillary's the nominee they can vote for McCain and feel like they were voting for the lesser of two evils. If the nominee is Obama though I don't think it drives that same hatred that whips the conservatives into a froth the way a Clinton nomination does. Obama doesn't seem to be the same kind of threat to Republicans that Hillary is, so I imagine a lot of the more centrist Republicans would rationalize voting for Obama over McCain as the better choice for America. It's why guys like Karl Rove and Rush Limbaugh have practically been praying that Hillary is the nominee because it's likely the only shot Republicans have at retaining the White House, and even then it's only a small window of opportunity. If the candidate is Obama I think Barack wins by a huge margin.
yes, but what I was pointing to was the going from Clinton to McCain dynamic.
This is mighty big of you, KVH. Hopefully, the Texas/Ohio primaries will give us a clear cut winner, so the in-fighting stops. Dems need to unite and get ready for the big battle.
cosign.
I don't know why you're doing this before Ohio.
"Mrs. Clinton, speaking to reporters Wednesday morning, said she was pleased with her debate performance and indicated she intended to pursue the nomination even if she loses the Ohio and Texas primaries next Tuesday."
My jaw dropped when I saw that. Apparently she's interested in being the Mike Huckabee of the Democratic party. If she actually follows through with that plan her political career will likely be over, or at least irrelevant.
I saw someone on a news show yesterday, I forget who, but a white female politician around Hillary's age, and she was saying that she's afraid that Hillary is going to lose because (I'm paraphrasing) "people are falling for a cute guy who is saying a lot of sweet nothings" and that it is a manifestation of how sexist America still is that Obama will be able to use that to beat a more deserving woman out of the nomination.
I found it a really odd thing for a public figure to say on national TV. But the makings of a female backlash against Obama are obviously there.
Maybe, but it'd likely only be a backlash of older women voters, not women across the board. Young people back Obama more almost across the board regardless of gender. Hillary's supporters want to make this about a gender divide but the truth is it's more of a generational divide, with Hillary particularly getting most of the older female demographic, but Obama doing well with relatively everybody else. Even those demographics he's been trailing in, such as Latinos, he's gaining ground on. The Clinton ship is quickly taking on water and they're looking for any and every angle they can to try and get back into the race but the truth is the momentum has been shifting Obama's way for a long long time and doesn't appear to be slowing.
"I'd rather be waterboarded than vote for McCain." T-shirt for sale at the recent meeting of the Conservative Political Action Committee.
In other news.
My wife's entire family are Conservatives who plan to vote for Obama, even the hawkish older guys. I'm telling you this shit is so over. They Frickin' hate McCain. My mother-in-law was telling me today that she may not agree with everything Obama does but it's the first time since Reagan that she's actually liked a presidential candidate. Dolo, Sababa dream that impossible dream.
I predict that one those two knuckleheads will vote Barack this fall. Just watch.
The idea that ANYONE 'deserves' or is 'more deserving' of the office of President is Clinton's main obstacle. You either win, or you don't. You either have something that people support, or not. I would say the same thing about Obama if he was in Clinton's spot right now. This mindset is just nonsense, and I think it was probably the Gov of Michigan, who was espousing the same bullshit on the Sunday news shows. A woman will surely be a candidate someday, it's just that this current electorate has issues with Clinton. It's not just sexism when people don't want to support a candidate they don't like, and especially one that was being shoved down our throats for the last 2 years.
I bet he's a pretty good lawyer....
Well Damn, what fun is that?
1) Heard Hillary interviewed on the News Hour. She was saying, in effect, that the first women president is more important for Americans than, the first Black president, because half the country are women. Clever argument, might cost her remaining Black votes.
2) Obama is doing a good job of going toe to toe today about al Qaeda in Iraq. He has a way of letting attacks slide of him, laugh at how silly they are, and then attack back. So much better than Gore and Kerry.
3) No landslide. Polls show McCain well ahead of Clinton head to head, and slightly better than Obama.
4) Hillary has not lost Texas and Ohio yet. She says she will continue any way because 1) they may more or less split the delegates, so there would be no real change in the race 2) no one wants to vote for some one who says I am quiting next week.
Sorry Dan but a combination of seven nat'l polls shows Obama up 3.7%. OF course this means nothing 9 months from election day. What I would like to hear is a credible argument of who is going to vote for McCain in this election. The far right is in the dumps. The independents, McCain's life blood, are very taken with Obama and the Dem base is motivated. All signs are pointing to a dem win and a pretty substantial one at. The only thing that gives me pause is that historically open seat elections tend to be close. We'll see.
Here's the link for the polling data
Polling shows McCain over Clinton and statisticly tied with Obama. No landslide.
4 years ago you told me the American people would never change presidents during a war. Those are the American people who will vote for McCain.
No doubt security will become a big issue sometime between now and November (remember for 2 days it was the big issue after Bhutto's assination). I think Obama can make his policies sound well thought out and tough while making McCain's (Bomb Bomb Iran and 100 war) sound foolish and simplistic.
The biggest question is who will be the 5% 3rd party candidate? I think it will be Bloomberg, but I don't know if he hurts Obama or McCain.
Bloomberg's out. I don't remember saying that we wouldn't vote out a president during war. But then again I thought Kerry gave one of the great convention speeches ever. Security is a double edge sword. Of course McCain has a clear advantage with those voters who think war on terror is very important. The truth is most Americans think this is a stupid war even as things have calmed a little in the last few months. Nobody is buying the "100 years" war line.
For the record I am not guaranteeing a blow out. I think it is a good possibility given the make up of the electorate and the current state of GOP. McCain should note how ineffective attacking Barack has been. He needs to get back to his 2000 campaign and start attacking republicans if he wants to impress swing voters.
1) Once Barack wins the nomination the word you will hear more than any other is Hussein. Even if McCain himself doesn't use this , the Conservatives will. They will rationalize it by pointing out that we ALWAYS refer to politicians with their middle names (Hillary Rodham Clinton, William Jefferson Clinton, etc.) This will play on the fears of the ignorant and will be used successfully.
2) The folks on the far right who are protesting loudly today, will eventually shut up and vote for McCain. If there were a third party candidate that would appeal to this segment I could see them voting for that candidate but Ralph Nader doesn't fit that bill. There may be a small segment of these folks who choose not to vote at all.
3) If McCain chooses a VP that appeals to the far right like Mike Huckabee, all of the far right will get behind McCain. If for no other reason than his age holds promise for the VP to take over between now and 2012.
4) The 35+ female voter will likely see McCain as the more experienced, more mature choice and view Obama as a "GQ" candidate with good looks and less experience.
5) Obama has used a great strategy in the Dem Primaries of turning the other cheek when directly attacked by Hillary. Like some have mentioned here, there were times when he should have had more "teeth" and stood toe to toe with his attacker/detractor. The Republicans will use this as a sign of weakness and will ask if Barack has the balls to stand up to our enemies vs. turning the other cheek. Republicans will continue to use the ever present threat of terrorism to win the scare vote.
6) The voters in the South and Midwest have a history of saying one thing and doing another. In the 50's and 60's there was a pattern of candidates that were running on a Civil Rights platform and were way ahead in the Polls right up to Election Day, ultimately losing the election. Republicans have always been more tight lipped about who they were voting for while Democrats tend to be more vocal. All of that goes away when they close that curtain and pull the lever.
7) Like in Sports, momentum is very important in an election. Barack has more momentum today than any Presidential candidate in recent memory. Maintaining that momentum over a 8 month period is very difficult. A poll today that shows Barack leading McCain nationally by 3.7% is nothing to hang a November victory on.
8) The "It's in the bag" mentality can have very negative effects on an election. People for the most part are lazy and need motivation to get their asses to the polls. If the feeling is that Obama has the election won ahead of time, a percentage of people who would have voted for him in a tight race may just stay home.
9) The Hispanic vote.
These are the pitfalls I believe that Barack will have to overcome. Each one by themselves can not dictate an outcome but in combination they certainly could. I admittedly do tend to focus on what a worst case scenario can be so I'm not disappointed if it comes to fruition. I will be voting for Obama, but will continue to cringe when I see folks counting their chickens before they hatch.
My question to those who think Barack being President is a done deal is, god forbid he does lose, who are you going to point a finger at??
True. It has to be an older White male with strong foreign policy/military experience. Wesley Clark, Bill Richardson type person, those two might have too much baggage. My choice is Max Clealand, but I'm a dreamer.
Rodham is not Clinton's middle name. What is her middle name? What is McCain's middle name.
Diane and Sidney.
"Well Sidney, when it comes to staying in Iraq for 100 years, you and I have different opinions."
My point is that those who will excessively use Hussein will point to George Walker Bush, etc., etc. to rationalize what is obviously a ploy to use Barack's middle name as a negative.