All the world experts are really confused about why people aren't dying. The mexican strain has about 10% case fatality [/b] so you would have expected at least one or two from other countries to be dead, but that's not happening. No real answer why and depending on who you talk to it could be a good or bad sign.
this seems wrong to me... mexico city pop. = 8 million... 150 dead... only 1500 cases out of 8 million people???????
The mexican strain has about 10% case[/b] fatality
Yeah, 10% case fatality means 10% of the people that got sick have died.
Incidence = number of new cases of a disease in a specified period of time / number of people at risk in that period of time
Prevalence = number of people infected at a given time / number of people in a population at that time
So 1500 / 8,000,000 = incidence (measure of risk)
(1500 - 150) / 8,000,000 = prevalence (measure of disease burden; does not measure risk)
Right now they are close because the disease is new.
So something with a short duration (either you die or get better quickly) may have a low prevalence but a relatively higher incidence. Like this flu. Something with a long duration (you have the disease for a long time) may have a low incidence, but high(er) prevalence. Like arthritis.
I am not freaking out yet, but I am starting to gather materials if things do go bad. I picked up some N95 rated masks (I am trying to source some medical grade ones on the net), the wife and I are going to stock up on food in case we need to restrict movement, and I am going to make sure I keep washing my hands regularly and have hand sanitizer when a wash room is not avaialable.
What will you do once you start freaking out?
Those mask companies must have paid Fox News and CNN a ton of money to get this story out.
All the world experts are really confused about why people aren't dying. The mexican strain has about 10% case fatality [/b] so you would have expected at least one or two from other countries to be dead, but that's not happening. No real answer why and depending on who you talk to it could be a good or bad sign.
this seems wrong to me... mexico city pop. = 8 million... 150 dead... only 1500 cases out of 8 million people???????
The mexican strain has about 10% case[/b] fatality
Yeah, 10% case fatality means 10% of the people that got sick have died.
Incidence = number of new cases of a disease in a specified period of time / number of people at risk in that period of time
Prevalence = number of people infected at a given time / number of people in a population at that time
So 1500 / 8,000,000 = incidence (measure of risk)
(1500 - 150) / 8,000,000 = prevalence (measure of disease burden; does not measure risk)
Right now they are close because the disease is new.
So something with a short duration (either you die or get better quickly) may have a low prevalence but a relatively higher incidence. Like this flu. Something with a long duration (you have the disease for a long time) may have a low incidence, but high(er) prevalence. Like arthritis.
The Soulstrut populace are not big fans of math and numbers. Damn your logical thinking.
It is tragic and not unexpected. The very young and very old are the usual targets for the flu. The real question is, will this virus start killing normally those who don't die from the flu (20-40).
Now the disease is in the US medical system where we will be tacking the numbers of infected vs. death rate and we will probably get a better idea of what this virus is doing.
Still not shook. Still preparing for the worst, hoping for the best.
It is tragic and not unexpected. The very young and very old are the usual targets for the flu. The real question is, will this virus start killing normally those who don't die from the flu (20-40).
Now the disease is in the US medical system where we will be tacking the numbers of infected vs. death rate and we will probably get a better idea of what this virus is doing.
Still not shook. Still preparing for the worst, hoping for the best.
Regular flu stats:
Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second. Note: this automatic extrapolation calculation uses the deaths statistic: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
swine flu real world related... i am in jamaica again and when i got to customs every single agent had a mask on!!!! then when they saw i had been in mexico 2 weeks ago they sent me right to the ministry of health who quickly questioned me and then stamped my admission forms seeing that i was flu free, but they are taking no chances here in the caribbean.
It is tragic and not unexpected. The very young and very old are the usual targets for the flu. The real question is, will this virus start killing normally those who don't die from the flu (20-40).
Now the disease is in the US medical system where we will be tacking the numbers of infected vs. death rate and we will probably get a better idea of what this virus is doing.
Still not shook. Still preparing for the worst, hoping for the best.
Regular flu stats:
Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second. Note: this automatic extrapolation calculation uses the deaths statistic: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
It is hard to compare this flu outbreak to regular seasonal flu for a couple of reasons:
1) this outbreak is new and hasn't really begun spreading in the general population as far as we can tell (although it certainly has the potential and seems to be likely that it will -- time will tell). Thus the numbers are too small to really get a sense of the case fatality rate -- although right now it seems low, at least outside of mexico, for reasons that are not completely understood. There are some theories though: in Mexico there may be greater levels of coinfection; higher levels of undernourished people (which make people more susceptible to infection and make illness more severe); health care outside of Mexico is better than within; or there may just not be enough infection outside of Mexico yet to see how severe the infection can be.
2) the mortality stats for seasonal flu are not too helpful because we don't really know how many flu infections occur each year (so case fatality stats are not available). A lot of regular flu goes unreported. Yes, a lot of people die from flu every year, but the reason the swine flu is of great concern is that we don't know how fast it will spread, how sick people with it will get, and how many of them will die.
I am finishing up a masters in public health right now, so this is kind of exciting in a perverse kind of way...
I phoned in the alert to the airport on Sunday and asked the guy to get a few of their people and we'd appreciate a look round before the first LA flight came in Monday morning. At that stage it was just stage 3 so I thought there would be about five airport people.
We drive over and walk into the airport emergency ops centre and, being the airport, they had called what looks like a full emergency ops alert, about 40 people are there all in different uniforms and everyone looks at me. Great. So I ended up doing the first briefing off the cuff, just like I had to do a passenger announcement in a plane this morning, and a media interview as part of the team because nobody from comms had told us the national news and newspaper photographers were coming.
Me and the medical officer of health (a doctor with the legal powers of god during a pandemic) have been sending a list of requests to logistics to do during the day while we sleep. Our system gets better every day but today was crazy busy now that they've raised the alert level to 4. I'm crashing for a few hours and hopefully going back at 1:00am unless they want me in earlier.
I am finishing up a masters in public health right now, so this is kind of exciting in a perverse kind of way...
That seems like one of those degrees that are like library science where you have about one job you are qualified for.
Not sure if you are kidding or not, but that is pretty off the mark -- you can go into advocacy, health policy, management, health systems, program evaluation, disease surveillance, intervention / program design, health education / behavior change, social marketing, formative research, data collection, biostatistics, epidemiology, vaccine development, work for health departments, bilaterals, multilaterals, NGOs, for profit, philanthropy...no shortage of public health health jobs, even in this recession.
I go to Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and there are 10 departments with between three and six degree programs within each department.
Phase 5[/b] is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
Phase 6[/b], the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
Comments
What a bad start to the wheeeeeeeeek!
Yeah, 10% case fatality means 10% of the people that got sick have died.
Incidence = number of new cases of a disease in a specified period of time / number of people at risk in that period of time
Prevalence = number of people infected at a given time / number of people in a population at that time
So 1500 / 8,000,000 = incidence (measure of risk)
(1500 - 150) / 8,000,000 = prevalence (measure of disease burden; does not measure risk)
Right now they are close because the disease is new.
So something with a short duration (either you die or get better quickly) may have a low prevalence but a relatively higher incidence. Like this flu. Something with a long duration (you have the disease for a long time) may have a low incidence, but high(er) prevalence. Like arthritis.
Hommie is about to be cakin in that vaccine money. Congrats man!
What will you do once you start freaking out?
Those mask companies must have paid Fox News and CNN a ton of money to get this story out.
Big Mask is evil. Word.
man up soulstrut.
The Soulstrut populace are not big fans of math and numbers. Damn your logical thinking.
that all the women will start lookin' like THIS:
You missed a few
I know someone already did this, but I just love the thought of it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/29/swine-flu-death-in-texas_n_192696.html
It happened in Texas and was an infant.
It is tragic and not unexpected. The very young and very old are the usual targets for the flu. The real question is, will this virus start killing normally those who don't die from the flu (20-40).
Now the disease is in the US medical system where we will be tacking the numbers of infected vs. death rate and we will probably get a better idea of what this virus is doing.
Still not shook. Still preparing for the worst, hoping for the best.
Regular flu stats:
http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htm
no, that is correct. the population of Central Mexico city is just over 8 mil.
The surrounding areas and suburbs make it about 22 mil., but that isn't the main city.
i am in jamaica again and when i got to customs every single agent had a mask on!!!! then when they saw i had been in mexico 2 weeks ago they sent me right to the ministry of health who quickly questioned me and then stamped my admission forms seeing that i was flu free, but they are taking no chances here in the caribbean.
It is hard to compare this flu outbreak to regular seasonal flu for a couple of reasons:
1) this outbreak is new and hasn't really begun spreading in the general population as far as we can tell (although it certainly has the potential and seems to be likely that it will -- time will tell). Thus the numbers are too small to really get a sense of the case fatality rate -- although right now it seems low, at least outside of mexico, for reasons that are not completely understood. There are some theories though: in Mexico there may be greater levels of coinfection; higher levels of undernourished people (which make people more susceptible to infection and make illness more severe); health care outside of Mexico is better than within; or there may just not be enough infection outside of Mexico yet to see how severe the infection can be.
2) the mortality stats for seasonal flu are not too helpful because we don't really know how many flu infections occur each year (so case fatality stats are not available). A lot of regular flu goes unreported. Yes, a lot of people die from flu every year, but the reason the swine flu is of great concern is that we don't know how fast it will spread, how sick people with it will get, and how many of them will die.
I am finishing up a masters in public health right now, so this is kind of exciting in a perverse kind of way...
That seems like one of those degrees that are like library science where you have about one job you are qualified for.
Grab your shotgun and get in the bunker...
i have a porkypine in my froat
I phoned in the alert to the airport on Sunday and asked the guy to get a few of their people and we'd appreciate a look round before the first LA flight came in Monday morning. At that stage it was just stage 3 so I thought there would be about five airport people.
We drive over and walk into the airport emergency ops centre and, being the airport, they had called what looks like a full emergency ops alert, about 40 people are there all in different uniforms and everyone looks at me. Great. So I ended up doing the first briefing off the cuff, just like I had to do a passenger announcement in a plane this morning, and a media interview as part of the team because nobody from comms had told us the national news and newspaper photographers were coming.
Me and the medical officer of health (a doctor with the legal powers of god during a pandemic) have been sending a list of requests to logistics to do during the day while we sleep. Our system gets better every day but today was crazy busy now that they've raised the alert level to 4. I'm crashing for a few hours and hopefully going back at 1:00am unless they want me in earlier.
Not sure if you are kidding or not, but that is pretty off the mark -- you can go into advocacy, health policy, management, health systems, program evaluation, disease surveillance, intervention / program design, health education / behavior change, social marketing, formative research, data collection, biostatistics, epidemiology, vaccine development, work for health departments, bilaterals, multilaterals, NGOs, for profit, philanthropy...no shortage of public health health jobs, even in this recession.
I go to Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and there are 10 departments with between three and six degree programs within each department.
So yeah, definitely more than 1 job.
Phase 5[/b] is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
Phase 6[/b], the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.