all forms of polling have obama at a huge favorite (the man is getting -375 on betting sites right now....)
I just spent 5 hours in a car listening to mostly NPR and a couple of other news stations - 'huge favorite' is definitely not the impression I got or the impression anyone on air had.
I guess I can't take betting sites seriously in these matters.
People like me, who follow Nate Silver and 538.com closely, do not believe it is a toss up.
Nate Silver is quick to point out that the election can go either way.
Which does not mean it is a toss up.
It means that Romney has 20% chance of winning.
20% is not zero, but it also is not 50/50, which is what I keep hearing on NPR.
It is kind of disgusting to treat politics like a sporting event, but it is also statistically sound analyze available data and come up with most likely scenarios. Which is what Silver does.
So take the radio experts with a grain of salt, statistical analysis is not their long suit.
If it is clear early that Obama has the expected states (NH, PA, VA) plus NC and looking good in FL I can go to bed before 10pm (PST).
If I have to stay awake for OH, and if OH is too close to call, it will be a long night.
My other hope is that Obama will get clear wins in NC and FL and Ohio wont matter.
It is important.
Even if you are in a state that wont decide the election.
You have local candidates and issues to weigh in on too.
And yes, our elections would never pass any international definition of fair.
An Oregon voter's vote (except in Clackamas County) is worth more than the vote of someone in OH or FL because it is more likely to be both cast and counted.
So let's talk y'all's local races...here in Memphis we have a race for US House between the incumbent, Steve Cohen and a Republican challenger, Dr. Flinn...Flinn is a sleazy, asshole with a Mitt-like mendacity. That race was my main reason to going to the polls as Obama never had a chance in TN...I still would have voted even if we didn't have an important race like Cohen/Flinn as I like to help the Shelby county returns that will have a landslide for Obama. We are the ONLY county in TN that votes Blue.
And to portray it as the smart versus the dumb is about as ignorant of an analysis as it gets.
x 1,000,000
Not sure if this is directed at my last comment, but saying you're going to vote for a new president to "try something new" when the candidate has changed his stance on every issue as it suits his audience, stashed millions of dollars in the Cayman Islands to avoid paying taxes for YEARS and has been caught in more lies than any politician in my lifetime - I'd say that yes, that's an unintelligent reason to vote for the POTUS.
If anyone wants to give me a reason to vote for Romney, by all means dewrit.
HarveyCanal"a distraction from my main thesis." 13,234 Posts
Reason #1 that people want to vote for Romney: He's not Obama. Simple as that. This may come as a surprise to some of you, but not only are there people who don't blindly worship Obama, but there are people who straight up hate him. Glad that I could help fill y'all in on this not-so-elusive reality.
Good grief Harvey, why do you insist that everyone who votes for Obama does so because of some sort blind love affair or thinking he is the savior?
A lot of people hate Obama because he is black and has a funny name...how about I chalk up your hate of Obama to that? That reasoning is the same as yours. You claim that the Obama supporters on here are blind sheeple. So, I can only assume you hate him because you hate black people in positions of power.
Sounds stupid doesn't it?
HarveyCanal"a distraction from my main thesis." 13,234 Posts
Huh?
My point would be that there are too many people strictly criticizing one side of the aisle only. And that works both ways. This just happens to be a place where Obama is the one of 2 assholes getting the ridiculous pass.
He...
went to Yale for his post-grad.
did volunteer work abroad
balanced the budget for the Winter Olympics
has a family
is Mormon
These are all reasons why he is qualified to be a President. I think he would do a fine job in the White House.
Btw: if these polls being spoken of are wrong, do people stop following them or something?
HarveyCanal"a distraction from my main thesis." 13,234 Posts
I hate Obama for NDAA, the banker bail-out's, Afghanistan, drone attacks, cracking down on medical marijuana, etc. I've said this all along, and only after voting for his snake ass 4 years ago. For you to even try to say that I really just hate him because he's black is merely stupid doo doo dumb on your part. So save it.
He...
went to Yale for his post-grad.
did volunteer work abroad
balanced the budget for the Winter Olympics
has a family
is Mormon
These are all reasons why he is qualified to be a President. I think he would do a fine job in the White House.
Please dude. I don't know why I'm wasting my time engaging with trollolololo, but you might as well say "he's breathing" as another qualification. Wtf does being Mormon and having a family have to do with being the president?
Still waiting for actual reasons to vote for him beyond emotions, racism and bullshit. Take your time.
He...
went to Yale for his post-grad.
did volunteer work abroad
balanced the budget for the Winter Olympics
has a family
is Mormon
These are all reasons why he is qualified to be a President. I think he would do a fine job in the White House.
Please dude. I don't know why I'm wasting my time engaging with trollolololo, but you might as well say "he's breathing" as another qualification. Wtf does being Mormon and having a family have to do with being the president?
Still waiting for actual reasons to vote for him beyond emotions, racism and bullshit. Take your time.
Having a family an being Mormon just shows that he participates in activities that other American also are a part of.
HarveyCanal"a distraction from my main thesis." 13,234 Posts
day said:
Still waiting for actual reasons to vote for him beyond emotions, racism and bullshit. Take your time.
You forgot that you are just inherently smarter than anyone voting for Romney. Wouldn't want to leave that out.
Still waiting for actual reasons to vote for him beyond emotions, racism and bullshit. Take your time.
You forgot that you are just inherently smarter than anyone voting for Romney. Wouldn't want to leave that out.
Come on Shied. There are people with PHD's and (insert societal accolade that indicates intelligence) who are voting from Robotney. I stand by my comment that choosing the president to "try something new" is a stupid reason to vote. This isn't a new flavor of ice cream or some kicks.
Dinner is ready so that should buy some time to come up with an actual reason. And Harv, fwiw, I agree on the issues with Obama like NDAA etc. I'm not saying dude is the second coming. He's fucked up on some things no doubt. That said, Romney is infinitely worse IMO.
My point would be that there are too many people strictly criticizing one side of the aisle only. And that works both ways. This just happens to be a place where Obama is the one of 2 assholes getting the ridiculous pass.
He gets a pass because he is on the side of the aisle that wants to listen to scientists in regards to climate change. The other side wants to listen to a preacher. Obama's side of the aisle wants to listen to women and doctors in regards to women's health issues. The other side wants to listen to preachers. Obama's side of the aisle thinks that trickle down economics is bullshit. The other side does not. Obama's side of the aisle puts minorities and women on the supreme court. The other side wants more "originalists". Obama's side of the aisle doesn't want to go to war with Iran. The other side wants to. Obama's side of the aisle doesn't want people to go bankrupt if they get sick and can't pay the bill. The other side thinks you should be. Obama's side thinks you should be able to get a load from the govt if you want to go to college. The other side thinks if you can't pay for it out of your pocket, then you shouldn't go to college.
I could go on, but the 2 sides do have differences, regardless of what you believe. If there wasn't a difference, then why are a handful of people putting up nearly a billion dollars to try and ensure that that the Red team takes the white house and the senate? If they were the same, why wouldn't they just say fuck it and live their lives as rich people? Because they have an agenda. The blue team has an agenda as well, but outside of drones, I have yet to see an agenda of theirs as sinister as the red team's.
The strength and beauty of American democracy is how little fraud we actually have these days (yes, as someone with a degree in History I am well aware of how fraud and machine politics has influenced our elections in the past).
Do you actually believe this? The vote rigging going on and the massive conflicts of interest being waged by Republicans (and Democrats) is seemingly worse than its ever been. Have you read the story about Alvin Greene, an accused sex offender, who inexplicably won the Democratic nomination for the South Carolina senate seat race? That's a couple years back, but this stuff is happening all the time.
Do you actually believe this? The vote rigging going on and the massive conflicts of interest being waged by Republicans (and Democrats) is seemingly worse than its ever been. Have you read the story about Alvin Greene, an accused sex offender, who inexplicably won the Democratic nomination for the South Carolina senate seat race? That's a couple years back, but this stuff is happening all the time.
Historically, yep it is a pittance in comparison. Read about Tammany Hall in New York or how real Chicago politics was run (not the pithy campaign slogan of the Romney campaign about Obama's team, get real). Don't get confused by the mythology that the Republican party has put out about "massive voter fraud" because it really isn't true.
Sure, there are instances of dirty tricks, and very occasionally actual voter fraud, but for the most part our elections have been free large scale malfeasance. Considering that our elections are done on a state by state basis and on a more granular level by county rather than by a national system I am surprised it works as well as it does. Could it be better, you bet.
I think that allowing elections to be overseen by partisan officials is a mistake for one.
But, but the real voter fraud is in person and we need voter ID laws because only real Americans drive cars! If this voter had an ID, the machine would have registered the correct vote!
HarveyCanal"a distraction from my main thesis." 13,234 Posts
The_Hook_Up said:
HarveyCanal said:
Huh?
My point would be that there are too many people strictly criticizing one side of the aisle only. And that works both ways. This just happens to be a place where Obama is the one of 2 assholes getting the ridiculous pass.
He gets a pass because he is on the side of the aisle that wants to listen to scientists in regards to climate change. The other side wants to listen to a preacher. Obama's side of the aisle wants to listen to women and doctors in regards to women's health issues. The other side wants to listen to preachers. Obama's side of the aisle thinks that trickle down economics is bullshit. The other side does not. Obama's side of the aisle puts minorities and women on the supreme court. The other side wants more "originalists". Obama's side of the aisle doesn't want to go to war with Iran. The other side wants to. Obama's side of the aisle doesn't want people to go bankrupt if they get sick and can't pay the bill. The other side thinks you should be. Obama's side thinks you should be able to get a load from the govt if you want to go to college. The other side thinks if you can't pay for it out of your pocket, then you shouldn't go to college.
I could go on, but the 2 sides do have differences, regardless of what you believe. If there wasn't a difference, then why are a handful of people putting up nearly a billion dollars to try and ensure that that the Red team takes the white house and the senate? If they were the same, why wouldn't they just say fuck it and live their lives as rich people? Because they have an agenda. The blue team has an agenda as well, but outside of drones, I have yet to see an agenda of theirs as sinister as the red team's.
For one, NDAA is sinister as fuck. And Obama bold faced lied about it too.
The video is disturbing. I just saw on the news that the machine in question has been pulled from service. So far no other instances have come up (fingers crossed). Hopefully this was nothing more than a malfunction on a single machine.
I find it hard to believe that this was a deliberate attempting to subvert the vote because making it so blatant is like putting a countdown timer on a bomb. What's the point of showing the "hero" how much time he has before the boom. What I am saying is, it would be far more likely that a subversion of a machine would be a routine that ran in the background, unseen, changing totals before they are sent to the election office.
I am sure that folks are going to be "truthing" the voting machines after this. Don't get me wrong, I am not happy with how voting machines are being handled in this country and it is madness that we don't have national standards for voting. The idea that we have 50 different states making 50 different decisions on this is inefficient and hard to monitor.
I think Saracenus, Day and the rest of us all agree that there are deliberate, and unintended, voter disenfranchisement and fraud.
The discussion is to what degree? Will it effect the out come?
NPR is droning in the background and they are reporting voter problems, larger and smaller, from around the country.
This time of year it always upsets me.
Every method of voting counts less than 100% of the votes and counts them less than 100% accurately.
Optical scan (the way my ballot will be read) has a higher accuracy rate than most other methods.
Someone who votes with a bunch card will have a smaller chance that their vote will be counted accurately.
A state with early voting and polls open late will have more voter enfranchisement than a state with one day short hours.
The effect is something less than one person one vote.
And don't get me started on the electoral college.
b/w
NPR keeps playing a tape of Romney saying "A Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow!". I laugh every time.
So let's talk y'all's local races...here in Memphis we have a race for US House between the incumbent, Steve Cohen and a Republican challenger, Dr. Flinn...Flinn is a sleazy, asshole with a Mitt-like mendacity. That race was my main reason to going to the polls as Obama never had a chance in TN...I still would have voted even if we didn't have an important race like Cohen/Flinn as I like to help the Shelby county returns that will have a landslide for Obama. We are the ONLY county in TN that votes Blue.
We need more local vote talk.
We have already talked about Portland's embarrassing mayoral race.
I also voted for more marijuana. Even though the ballot measure is bad public policy. It is still better than what our legislature is doing.
I voted for a local ArtsInSchoolFlatTax. Even though the ballot measure is bad public policy.
And of course, I voted to raise my property taxes to rebuild our schools.
I voted against my congressional Rep who will receive 80+% of the vote. He is not a bad guy, just gives me a chance to vote for the Green candidate, who is a good guy.
I have decided that Bear Claw/Gator Toof/Gator Foot is really Sababdaba.
His posts read like zen poetry. Beautiful unexpected nonsense.
Stupid has never been so smart.
We know that Saba loves political threads but his current work keeps him from posting in them and agitating like he used to.
His (once) anonymous alter ego.
Comments
People like me, who follow Nate Silver and 538.com closely, do not believe it is a toss up.
Nate Silver is quick to point out that the election can go either way.
Which does not mean it is a toss up.
It means that Romney has 20% chance of winning.
20% is not zero, but it also is not 50/50, which is what I keep hearing on NPR.
It is kind of disgusting to treat politics like a sporting event, but it is also statistically sound analyze available data and come up with most likely scenarios. Which is what Silver does.
So take the radio experts with a grain of salt, statistical analysis is not their long suit.
If it is clear early that Obama has the expected states (NH, PA, VA) plus NC and looking good in FL I can go to bed before 10pm (PST).
If I have to stay awake for OH, and if OH is too close to call, it will be a long night.
My other hope is that Obama will get clear wins in NC and FL and Ohio wont matter.
x 1,000,000
It is important.
Even if you are in a state that wont decide the election.
You have local candidates and issues to weigh in on too.
And yes, our elections would never pass any international definition of fair.
An Oregon voter's vote (except in Clackamas County) is worth more than the vote of someone in OH or FL because it is more likely to be both cast and counted.
Not sure if this is directed at my last comment, but saying you're going to vote for a new president to "try something new" when the candidate has changed his stance on every issue as it suits his audience, stashed millions of dollars in the Cayman Islands to avoid paying taxes for YEARS and has been caught in more lies than any politician in my lifetime - I'd say that yes, that's an unintelligent reason to vote for the POTUS.
If anyone wants to give me a reason to vote for Romney, by all means dewrit.
A lot of people hate Obama because he is black and has a funny name...how about I chalk up your hate of Obama to that? That reasoning is the same as yours. You claim that the Obama supporters on here are blind sheeple. So, I can only assume you hate him because you hate black people in positions of power.
Sounds stupid doesn't it?
My point would be that there are too many people strictly criticizing one side of the aisle only. And that works both ways. This just happens to be a place where Obama is the one of 2 assholes getting the ridiculous pass.
He...
went to Yale for his post-grad.
did volunteer work abroad
balanced the budget for the Winter Olympics
has a family
is Mormon
These are all reasons why he is qualified to be a President. I think he would do a fine job in the White House.
Btw: if these polls being spoken of are wrong, do people stop following them or something?
Please dude. I don't know why I'm wasting my time engaging with trollolololo, but you might as well say "he's breathing" as another qualification. Wtf does being Mormon and having a family have to do with being the president?
Still waiting for actual reasons to vote for him beyond emotions, racism and bullshit. Take your time.
Having a family an being Mormon just shows that he participates in activities that other American also are a part of.
You forgot that you are just inherently smarter than anyone voting for Romney. Wouldn't want to leave that out.
The post-grad degree illustrates that he has an education, as well as, set goals and accomplishes them.
The Winter Olympics is an example of him using his education, gaining skills and experience.
Volunteering shows that he cares...he really does care.
You don't think he will reduce the deficit?
If not, then I will write-in Steve Lawrence - Hello Dolly
Come on Shied. There are people with PHD's and (insert societal accolade that indicates intelligence) who are voting from Robotney. I stand by my comment that choosing the president to "try something new" is a stupid reason to vote. This isn't a new flavor of ice cream or some kicks.
Dinner is ready so that should buy some time to come up with an actual reason. And Harv, fwiw, I agree on the issues with Obama like NDAA etc. I'm not saying dude is the second coming. He's fucked up on some things no doubt. That said, Romney is infinitely worse IMO.
He gets a pass because he is on the side of the aisle that wants to listen to scientists in regards to climate change. The other side wants to listen to a preacher. Obama's side of the aisle wants to listen to women and doctors in regards to women's health issues. The other side wants to listen to preachers. Obama's side of the aisle thinks that trickle down economics is bullshit. The other side does not. Obama's side of the aisle puts minorities and women on the supreme court. The other side wants more "originalists". Obama's side of the aisle doesn't want to go to war with Iran. The other side wants to. Obama's side of the aisle doesn't want people to go bankrupt if they get sick and can't pay the bill. The other side thinks you should be. Obama's side thinks you should be able to get a load from the govt if you want to go to college. The other side thinks if you can't pay for it out of your pocket, then you shouldn't go to college.
I could go on, but the 2 sides do have differences, regardless of what you believe. If there wasn't a difference, then why are a handful of people putting up nearly a billion dollars to try and ensure that that the Red team takes the white house and the senate? If they were the same, why wouldn't they just say fuck it and live their lives as rich people? Because they have an agenda. The blue team has an agenda as well, but outside of drones, I have yet to see an agenda of theirs as sinister as the red team's.
Do you actually believe this? The vote rigging going on and the massive conflicts of interest being waged by Republicans (and Democrats) is seemingly worse than its ever been. Have you read the story about Alvin Greene, an accused sex offender, who inexplicably won the Democratic nomination for the South Carolina senate seat race? That's a couple years back, but this stuff is happening all the time.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/12/us/politics/12greene.html?_r=0
Historically, yep it is a pittance in comparison. Read about Tammany Hall in New York or how real Chicago politics was run (not the pithy campaign slogan of the Romney campaign about Obama's team, get real). Don't get confused by the mythology that the Republican party has put out about "massive voter fraud" because it really isn't true.
Sure, there are instances of dirty tricks, and very occasionally actual voter fraud, but for the most part our elections have been free large scale malfeasance. Considering that our elections are done on a state by state basis and on a more granular level by county rather than by a national system I am surprised it works as well as it does. Could it be better, you bet.
I think that allowing elections to be overseen by partisan officials is a mistake for one.
But I don't see the doom and gloom that you do.
But, but the real voter fraud is in person and we need voter ID laws because only real Americans drive cars! If this voter had an ID, the machine would have registered the correct vote!
For one, NDAA is sinister as fuck. And Obama bold faced lied about it too.
The video is disturbing. I just saw on the news that the machine in question has been pulled from service. So far no other instances have come up (fingers crossed). Hopefully this was nothing more than a malfunction on a single machine.
I find it hard to believe that this was a deliberate attempting to subvert the vote because making it so blatant is like putting a countdown timer on a bomb. What's the point of showing the "hero" how much time he has before the boom. What I am saying is, it would be far more likely that a subversion of a machine would be a routine that ran in the background, unseen, changing totals before they are sent to the election office.
I am sure that folks are going to be "truthing" the voting machines after this. Don't get me wrong, I am not happy with how voting machines are being handled in this country and it is madness that we don't have national standards for voting. The idea that we have 50 different states making 50 different decisions on this is inefficient and hard to monitor.
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
The discussion is to what degree? Will it effect the out come?
NPR is droning in the background and they are reporting voter problems, larger and smaller, from around the country.
This time of year it always upsets me.
Every method of voting counts less than 100% of the votes and counts them less than 100% accurately.
Optical scan (the way my ballot will be read) has a higher accuracy rate than most other methods.
Someone who votes with a bunch card will have a smaller chance that their vote will be counted accurately.
A state with early voting and polls open late will have more voter enfranchisement than a state with one day short hours.
The effect is something less than one person one vote.
And don't get me started on the electoral college.
b/w
NPR keeps playing a tape of Romney saying "A Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow!". I laugh every time.
We need more local vote talk.
We have already talked about Portland's embarrassing mayoral race.
I also voted for more marijuana. Even though the ballot measure is bad public policy. It is still better than what our legislature is doing.
I voted for a local ArtsInSchoolFlatTax. Even though the ballot measure is bad public policy.
And of course, I voted to raise my property taxes to rebuild our schools.
I voted against my congressional Rep who will receive 80+% of the vote. He is not a bad guy, just gives me a chance to vote for the Green candidate, who is a good guy.
How strict are police on the California/Oregon border
b/w
Talmbout a roadtrip here!
His posts read like zen poetry. Beautiful unexpected nonsense.
Stupid has never been so smart.
We know that Saba loves political threads but his current work keeps him from posting in them and agitating like he used to.
His (once) anonymous alter ego.